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Sources of MJO teleconnection errors in the ECMWF extended‐range forecasts.
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- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2024, v. 150, n. 761, p. 2028, doi. 10.1002/qj.4688
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- Article
Remote effects of Tibetan Plateau spring land temperature on global subseasonal to seasonal precipitation prediction and comparison with effects of sea surface temperature: the GEWEX/LS4P Phase I experiment.
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- Climate Dynamics, 2024, v. 62, n. 4, p. 2603, doi. 10.1007/s00382-023-06905-5
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- Article
Near-global summer circulation response to the spring surface temperature anomaly in Tibetan Plateau –– the GEWEX/LS4P first phase experiment.
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- Climate Dynamics, 2024, v. 62, n. 4, p. 2907, doi. 10.1007/s00382-024-07210-5
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- Article
The tropical influence on sub‐seasonal predictability of wintertime stratosphere and stratosphere–troposphere coupling.
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- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2024, v. 150, n. 760, p. 1357, doi. 10.1002/qj.4649
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- Article
Assessment of seasonal forecasting errors of the ECMWF system in the eastern Indian Ocean.
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- Climate Dynamics, 2024, v. 62, n. 2, p. 1391, doi. 10.1007/s00382-023-06985-3
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- Article
Domino: A new framework for the automated identification of weather event precursors, demonstrated for European extreme rainfall.
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- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2024, v. 150, n. 759, p. 776, doi. 10.1002/qj.4622
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- Article
The role of in situ ocean data assimilation in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts of sea-surface temperature and mixed-layer depth over the tropical Pacific ocean.
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- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2023, v. 149, n. 757, p. 3513, doi. 10.1002/qj.4570
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Euro-Atlantic Weather Regimes and Their Modulation by Tropospheric and Stratospheric Teleconnection Pathways in ECMWF Reforecasts.
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- Monthly Weather Review, 2023, v. 151, n. 10, p. 2779, doi. 10.1175/MWR-D-22-0346.1
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Information-Based Probabilistic Verification Scores for Two-Dimensional Ensemble Forecast Data: A Madden–Julian Oscillation Index Example.
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- Monthly Weather Review, 2023, v. 151, n. 9, p. 2245, doi. 10.1175/MWR-D-23-0003.1
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How to choose credible ensemble members for the sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction of precipitation?
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- Climate Dynamics, 2023, v. 61, n. 3/4, p. 1257, doi. 10.1007/s00382-022-06623-4
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- Article
Evaluation of Probabilistic Forecasts of Extreme Cold Events in S2S Models.
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- Water (20734441), 2023, v. 15, n. 15, p. 2795, doi. 10.3390/w15152795
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- Article
Advances in tropical cyclone prediction on subseasonal time scales during 2019-2022.
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- Tropical Cyclone Research & Review, 2023, v. 12, n. 2, p. 136, doi. 10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.06.004
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- Article
An extratropical window of opportunity for subseasonal prediction of East Asian summer surface air temperature.
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- NPJ Climate & Atmospheric Science, 2023, v. 6, n. 1, p. 1, doi. 10.1038/s41612-023-00384-5
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Multi‐Model Subseasonal Prediction Skill Assessment of Water Vapor Transport Associated With Atmospheric Rivers Over the Western U.S.
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- Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres, 2023, v. 128, n. 7, p. 1, doi. 10.1029/2022JD037608
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Assessing the Impact of Ocean In Situ Observations on MJO Propagation Across the Maritime Continent in ECMWF Subseasonal Forecasts.
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- Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 2023, v. 15, n. 2, p. 1, doi. 10.1029/2022MS003044
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Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change: A World Climate Research Programme Call to Action.
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- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2023, v. 104, n. 1, p. E325, doi. 10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0280.1
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Sensitivity of ECMWF coupled forecasts to improved initialization of the ocean mesoscale.
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- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2022, v. 148, n. 749, p. 3694, doi. 10.1002/qj.4383
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- Article
Advances in the Prediction of MJO Teleconnections in the S2S Forecast Systems.
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- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2022, v. 103, n. 6, p. E1426, doi. 10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0130.1
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Advances in the Subseasonal Prediction of Extreme Events: Relevant Case Studies across the Globe.
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- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2022, v. 103, n. 6, p. E1473, doi. 10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0221.1
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- Article
Influence of trends on subseasonal temperature prediction skill.
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- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2022, v. 148, n. 744, p. 1280, doi. 10.1002/qj.4259
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- Article
The 2021 Western North American Heatwave and Its Subseasonal Predictions.
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- Geophysical Research Letters, 2022, v. 49, n. 6, p. 1, doi. 10.1029/2021GL097036
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Tropospheric Role in the Predictability of the Surface Impact of the 2018 Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event.
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- Geophysical Research Letters, 2022, v. 49, n. 1, p. 1, doi. 10.1029/2021GL095464
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Skill, Predictability, and Cluster Analysis of Atlantic Tropical Storms and Hurricanes in the ECMWF Monthly Forecasts.
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- Monthly Weather Review, 2021, v. 149, n. 11, p. 3781, doi. 10.1175/MWR-D-21-0075.1
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The Impact of Coupled Data Assimilation on Madden–Julian Oscillation Predictability Initialized from Coupled Satellite-Era Reanalysis.
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- Monthly Weather Review, 2021, v. 149, n. 9, p. 2897, doi. 10.1175/MWR-D-20-0360.1
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Lagged ensembles in sub‐seasonal predictions.
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- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2021, v. 147, n. 739, p. 3227, doi. 10.1002/qj.4125
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- Article
Year-round impact of winter sea ice thickness observations on seasonal forecasts.
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- Cryosphere, 2021, v. 15, n. 1, p. 325, doi. 10.5194/tc-15-325-2021
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- Article
A Baseline for Global Weather and Climate Simulations at 1 km Resolution.
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- Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 2020, v. 12, n. 11, p. 1, doi. 10.1029/2020MS002192
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Subseasonal Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere Using a Dynamical Multimodel Ensemble.
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- Weather & Forecasting, 2020, v. 35, n. 5, p. 1817, doi. 10.1175/WAF-D-20-0050.1
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Current and Emerging Developments in Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction.
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- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2020, v. 101, n. 6, p. E869, doi. 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0037.1
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- Article
Subseasonal Predictions of Tropical Cyclone Occurrence and ACE in the S2S Dataset.
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- Weather & Forecasting, 2020, v. 35, n. 3, p. 921, doi. 10.1175/WAF-D-19-0217.1
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- Article
Year-round Impact ofWinter Sea Ice Thickness Observations on Seasonal Forecasts.
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- Cryosphere Discussions, 2020, p. 1, doi. 10.5194/tc-2020-73
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- Article
Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Weather to Climate with Application to Tropical Cyclones.
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- Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres, 2020, v. 125, n. 6, p. 1, doi. 10.1029/2018JD029375
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The Impact of the Stratosphere on the MJO in a Forecast Model.
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- Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres, 2020, v. 125, n. 4, p. 1, doi. 10.1029/2019JD032106
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Multimodel Subseasonal Forecasts of Spring Cold Spells: Potential Value for the Hazelnut Agribusiness.
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- Weather & Forecasting, 2020, v. 35, n. 1, p. 237, doi. 10.1175/WAF-D-19-0086.1
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Impact of the QBO on Prediction and Predictability of the MJO Convection.
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- Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres, 2019, v. 124, n. 22, p. 11766, doi. 10.1029/2019JD030575
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- Article
Experimental Subseasonal‐to‐Seasonal (S2S) Forecasting of Atmospheric Rivers Over the Western United States.
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- Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres, 2019, v. 124, n. 21, p. 11242, doi. 10.1029/2019JD031200
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Seasonal Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Landfall Using ECMWF's System 4.
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- Weather & Forecasting, 2019, v. 34, n. 5, p. 1239, doi. 10.1175/WAF-D-18-0032.1
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Treatment of model uncertainty from radiation by the Stochastically Perturbed Parametrization Tendencies (SPPT) scheme and associated revisions in the ECMWF ensembles.
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- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2019, v. 145, p. 75, doi. 10.1002/qj.3570
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- Article
Prediction and predictability of tropical intraseasonal convection: seasonal dependence and the Maritime Continent prediction barrier.
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- Climate Dynamics, 2019, v. 52, n. 9/10, p. 6015, doi. 10.1007/s00382-018-4492-9
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- Article
Global evaluation of atmospheric river subseasonal prediction skill.
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- Climate Dynamics, 2019, v. 52, n. 5/6, p. 3039, doi. 10.1007/s00382-018-4309-x
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The impact of biomass burning emissions on sub-seasonal prediction: a study using the ECMWF's coupled Ensemble Prediction System.
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- Geophysical Research Abstracts, 2019, v. 21, p. 1
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The close linkage of atmospheric composition and weather prediction.
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- Geophysical Research Abstracts, 2019, v. 21, p. 1
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Model climatology of the intraseasonal oscillations in the S2S models.
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- Geophysical Research Abstracts, 2019, v. 21, p. 1
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- Article
Representation of synoptic-scale Rossby Wave Packets and Blocking in the S2S Prediction Project Database.
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- Geophysical Research Abstracts, 2019, v. 21, p. 1
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Predicting Sudden Stratospheric Warming 2018 and Its Climate Impacts With a Multimodel Ensemble.
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- Geophysical Research Letters, 2018, v. 45, n. 24, p. 13,538, doi. 10.1029/2018GL081091
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Prediction of the Madden–Julian Oscillation: A Review.
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- Journal of Climate, 2018, v. 31, n. 23, p. 9425, doi. 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0210.1
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Summary of workshop on sub-seasonal to seasonal predictability of extreme weather and climate.
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- NPJ Climate & Atmospheric Science, 2018, v. 1, n. 1, p. N.PAG, doi. 10.1038/s41612-017-0009-1
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- Article
The sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project (S2S) and the prediction of extreme events.
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- NPJ Climate & Atmospheric Science, 2018, v. 1, n. 1, p. N.PAG, doi. 10.1038/s41612-018-0013-0
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- Article
Can the Direct Effect of Aerosols Improve Subseasonal Predictability?.
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- Monthly Weather Review, 2018, v. 146, n. 10, p. 3481, doi. 10.1175/MWR-D-17-0282.1
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- Article
Subseasonal Tropical Cyclone Genesis Prediction and MJO in the S2S Dataset.
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- Weather & Forecasting, 2018, v. 33, n. 4, p. 967, doi. 10.1175/WAF-D-17-0165.1
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- Article