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Predicting the future with humans and AI.
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- Consumer Psychology Review, 2023, v. 6, n. 1, p. 109, doi. 10.1002/arcp.1089
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- Article
Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting.
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- Management Science, 2021, v. 67, n. 12, p. 7599, doi. 10.1287/mnsc.2020.3882
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- Article
Conflicting Goals Influence Physicians' Expressed Beliefs to Patients and Colleagues.
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- Medical Decision Making, 2021, v. 41, n. 5, p. 505, doi. 10.1177/0272989X211001841
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- Article
How perceptions of autonomy relate to beliefs about inequality and fairness.
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- PLoS ONE, 2021, v. 16, n. 1, p. 1, doi. 10.1371/journal.pone.0244387
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- Article
Multiple Goals as Reference Points: One Failure Makes Everything Else Feel Worse.
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- Management Science, 2019, v. 65, n. 7, p. 3337, doi. 10.1287/mnsc.2018.3097
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- Article
Are markets more accurate than polls? The surprising informational value of "just asking".
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- Judgment & Decision Making, 2019, v. 14, n. 3, p. 135, doi. 10.1017/s1930297500003375
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- Article
Are markets more accurate than polls? The surprising informational value of "just asking".
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- Judgment & Decision Making, 2019, v. 14, n. 2, p. 135, doi. 10.1017/s1930297500003375
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- Article
Affective responses to uncertain real-world outcomes: Sentiment change on Twitter.
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- PLoS ONE, 2019, v. 14, n. 2, p. 1, doi. 10.1371/journal.pone.0212489
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- Article
The Value of Precision in Probability Assessment: Evidence from a Large-Scale Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament.
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- International Studies Quarterly, 2018, v. 62, n. 2, p. 410, doi. 10.1093/isq/sqx078
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- Article
Robust forecast aggregation: Fourier L<sub>2</sub>E regression.
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- Journal of Forecasting, 2018, v. 37, n. 3, p. 259, doi. 10.1002/for.2489
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- Article
Accountability and adaptive performance under uncertainty: A long-term view.
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- Judgment & Decision Making, 2017, v. 12, n. 6, p. 610, doi. 10.1017/s1930297500006732
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- Article
Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition.
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- Management Science, 2017, v. 63, n. 11, p. 3552, doi. 10.1287/mnsc.2016.2525
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- Article
How generalizable is good judgment? A multi-task, multi-benchmark study.
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- Judgment & Decision Making, 2017, v. 12, n. 4, p. 369, doi. 10.1017/s1930297500006240
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- Article
Sacred versus Pseudo-Sacred Values: How People Cope with Taboo Trade-Offs.
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- American Economic Review, 2017, v. 107, n. 5, p. 96, doi. 10.1257/aer.p20171110
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- Article
Accountability Systems and Group Norms: Balancing the Risks of Mindless Conformity and Reckless Deviation.
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- Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 2017, v. 30, n. 2, p. 282, doi. 10.1002/bdm.1933
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- Article
An IRT forecasting model: linking proper scoring rules to item response theory.
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- Judgment & Decision Making, 2017, v. 12, n. 2, p. 90, doi. 10.1017/s1930297500005647
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- Article
Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets vs. Prediction Polls.
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- Management Science, 2017, v. 63, n. 3, p. 691, doi. 10.1287/mnsc.2015.2374
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- Article
Trade-upgrade framing effects: Trades are losses, but upgrades are improvements.
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- Judgment & Decision Making, 2016, v. 11, n. 6, p. 582, doi. 10.1017/s1930297500004794
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- Article
Developing expert political judgment: The impact of training and practice on judgmental accuracy in geopolitical forecasting tournaments.
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- Judgment & Decision Making, 2016, v. 11, n. 5, p. 509, doi. 10.1017/s1930297500004599
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- Article
Validating the Contribution-Weighted Model: Robustness and Cost-Benefit Analyses.
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- Decision Analysis, 2016, v. 13, n. 2, p. 128, doi. 10.1287/deca.2016.0329
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- Article
Anticipated regret in shared decisionmaking: a randomized experimental study.
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- Perioperative Medicine, 2016, v. 5, p. 1, doi. 10.1186/s13741-016-0031-6
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- Article
American attitudes toward nudges.
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- Judgment & Decision Making, 2016, v. 11, n. 1, p. 62, doi. 10.1017/s1930297500007592
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- Article
Balancing Fairness and Efficiency: The Impact of Identity-Blind and Identity-Conscious Accountability on Applicant Screening.
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- PLoS ONE, 2015, v. 10, n. 12, p. 1, doi. 10.1371/journal.pone.0145208
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- Article
The Power of Social Influence on Estimation Accuracy.
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- Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 2015, v. 28, n. 3, p. 250, doi. 10.1002/bdm.1843
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- Article
Two Reasons to Make Aggregated Probability Forecasts More Extreme.
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- Decision Analysis, 2014, v. 11, n. 2, p. 133, doi. 10.1287/deca.2014.0293
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- Article
A BEHAVIORALLY INFORMED SURVEY-POWERED MARKET AGENT.
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- Journal of Prediction Markets, 2014, v. 8, n. 2, p. 1, doi. 10.5750/jpm.v8i2.867
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- Article
The role of actively open-minded thinking in information acquisition, accuracy, and calibration.
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- Judgment & Decision Making, 2013, v. 8, n. 3, p. 188, doi. 10.1017/s1930297500005921
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- Article
How beliefs influence the relative magnitude of pleasure and pain.
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- Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 2010, v. 23, n. 4, p. 369, doi. 10.1002/bdm.662
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- Article
Pleasurable Surprises: A Cross-Cultural Study of Consumer Responses to Unexpected Incentives.
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- Journal of Consumer Research, 2010, v. 36, n. 5, p. 792, doi. 10.1086/605592
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- Article
Cross-cultural Differences in Delight.
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- Advances in Consumer Research, 2008, v. 35, p. 678
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- Article
Extending the Bounds of Rationality: Evidence and Theories of Preferential Choice.
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- Journal of Economic Literature, 2006, v. 44, n. 3, p. 631, doi. 10.1257/jel.44.3.631
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- Article
Decision Neuroscience.
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- Marketing Letters, 2005, v. 16, n. 3/4, p. 375, doi. 10.1007/s11002-005-5899-8
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- Article
Shifting Reference Points & Fleeting Pleasures.
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- Advances in Consumer Research, 2005, v. 32, n. 1, p. 116
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- Article
The affective costs of overconfidence.
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- Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 2004, v. 17, n. 4, p. 281, doi. 10.1002/bdm.472
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- Article
I Was Pleased a Moment Ago: How Pleasure Varies with Background and Foreground Reference Points.
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- Motivation & Emotion, 2004, v. 28, n. 1, p. 65, doi. 10.1023/B:MOEM.0000027278.22201.68
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- Article
When many want what only a few can have.
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- 1997
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- Book Review
Choice in Computer-Mediated Environments.
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- Marketing Letters, 1997, v. 8, n. 3, p. 287, doi. 10.1023/A:1007908513094
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- Article
Are Preference Reversals Reduced When Made Explicit?
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- Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 1995, v. 8, n. 4, p. 265
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- Article
Dominance Violations in Judged Prices of Two- and Three-outcome Gambles.
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- Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 1995, v. 8, n. 3, p. 201, doi. 10.1002/bdm.3960080305
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- Article
Is Choice the Correct Primitive? On Using Certainty Equivalents and Reference Levels to Predict Choices Among Gambles.
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- Journal of Risk & Uncertainty, 1993, v. 6, n. 2, p. 115
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- Article
Violations of Dominance in Pricing Judgments.
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- Journal of Risk & Uncertainty, 1992, v. 5, n. 1, p. 73, doi. 10.1007/BF00208788
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- Article
Mediated Models for the Analysis of Confounded Variables and Self-Selected Samples.
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- Journal of Educational & Behavioral Statistics, 1989, v. 14, n. 2, p. 146, doi. 10.3102/10769986014002146
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- Article