Works by David B. Stephenson

Results: 72

A new energy-balance approach to linear filtering for estimating effective radiative forcing from temperature time series.

Published in:

Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology & Oceanography (ASCMO), 2020, v. 6, n. 2, p. 91, doi. 10.5194/ascmo-6-91-2020

By:

Cummins, Donald P.;
Stephenson, David B.;
Stott, Peter A.

Publication type:

Article

Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the NAO, and potential future risks.

Published in:

Natural Hazards & Earth System Sciences Discussions, 2023, p. 1, doi. 10.5194/nhess-2023-22

By:

Priestley, Matthew D. K.;
Stephenson, David B.;
Scaife, Adam A.;
Bannister, Daniel;
Allen, Christopher J. T.;
Wilkie, David

Publication type:

Article

An Adaptive Markov Chain Approach for Probabilistic Forecasting of Categorical Events.

Published in:

Monthly Weather Review, 2020, v. 148, n. 9, p. 3681, doi. 10.1175/MWR-D-19-0239.1

By:

POPE, EDWARD C. D.;
STEPHENSON, DAVID B.;
JACKSON, DAVID R.

Publication type:

Article

Detecting Improvements in Forecast Correlation Skill: Statistical Testing and Power Analysis.

Published in:

Monthly Weather Review, 2017, v. 145, n. 2, p. 437, doi. 10.1175/MWR-D-16-0037.1

By:

SIEGERT, STEFAN;
BELLPRAT, OMAR;
MÉNÉGOZ, MARTIN;
STEPHENSON, DAVID B.;
DOBLAS-REYES, FRANCISCO J.

Publication type:

Article

Inherent Bounds on Forecast Accuracy due to Observation Uncertainty Caused by Temporal Sampling.

Published in:

Monthly Weather Review, 2015, v. 143, n. 10, p. 4236, doi. 10.1175/MWR-D-15-0173.1

By:

Mittermaier, Marion P.;
Stephenson, David B.

Publication type:

Article

The importance of sea ice area biases in 21st century multimodel projections of Antarctic temperature and precipitation.

Published in:

Geophysical Research Letters, 2015, v. 42, n. 24, p. 10,832, doi. 10.1002/2015GL067055

By:

Bracegirdle, Thomas J.;
Stephenson, David B.;
Turner, John;
Phillips, Tony

Publication type:

Article

On the relevance of extremal dependence for spatial statistical modelling of natural hazards.

Published in:

Natural Hazards & Earth System Sciences Discussions, 2018, p. 1, doi. 10.5194/nhess-2018-102

By:

Dawkins, Laura C.;
Stephenson, David B.

Publication type:

Article

Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment. 1. A review of different natural hazard areas.

Published in:

Natural Hazards & Earth System Sciences Discussions, 2017, p. 1, doi. 10.5194/nhess-2017-250

By:

Beven, Keith J.;
Almeida, Susana;
Aspinall, Willy P.;
Bates, Paul D.;
Blazkova, Sarka;
Borgomeo, Edoardo;
Goda, Katsu;
Hall, Jim W.;
Phillips, Jeremy C.;
Simpson, Michael;
Smith, Paul J.;
Stephenson, David B.;
Wagener, Thorsten;
Watson, Matt;
Wilkins, Kate L.

Publication type:

Article

The 21st Century Decline in Damaging European Windstorms.

Published in:

Natural Hazards & Earth System Sciences Discussions, 2016, p. 1, doi. 10.5194/nhess-2016-121

By:

Dawkins, Laura C.;
Stephenson, David B.;
Lockwood, Julia F.;
Maisey, Paul E.

Publication type:

Article

Drivers of the 2013/14 winter floods in the UK.

Published in:

Nature Climate Change, 2015, v. 5, n. 6, p. 490, doi. 10.1038/nclimate2612

By:

van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan;
Stephenson, David B.;
Sterl, Andreas;
Vautard, Robert;
Yiou, Pascal;
Drijfhout, Sybren S.;
von Storch, Hans;
van den Dool, Huug

Publication type:

Article

More Accurate Climate Trend Attribution by Using Cointegrating Vector Time Series Models.

Published in:

Sustainability (2071-1050), 2023, v. 15, n. 16, p. 12142, doi. 10.3390/su151612142

By:

Stephenson, David B.;
Turasie, Alemtsehai A.;
Cummins, Donald P.

Publication type:

Article

Correlation of wind and precipitation annual aggregate severity of European cyclones.

Published in:

Weather (00431656), 2024, v. 79, n. 6, p. 176, doi. 10.1002/wea.4573

By:

Jones, Toby P.;
Stephenson, David B.;
Priestley, Matthew D. K.

Publication type:

Article

Time series modeling of paleoclimate data.

Published in:

Environmetrics, 2016, v. 27, n. 1, p. 55, doi. 10.1002/env.2373

By:

Davidson, James E. H.;
Stephenson, David B.;
Turasie, Alemtsehai A.

Publication type:

Article

Statistical problems in the probabilistic prediction of climate change Statistical problems in the probabilistic prediction of climate change.

Published in:

Environmetrics, 2012, v. 23, n. 5, p. 364, doi. 10.1002/env.2153

By:

Stephenson, David B.;
Collins, Matthew;
Rougier, Jonathan C.;
Chandler, Richard E.

Publication type:

Article

Estimates of past and future ozone trends from multimodel simulations using a flexible smoothing spline methodology.

Published in:

Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres, 2010, v. 115, n. D3, p. n/a, doi. 10.1029/2009JD013622

By:

Scinocca, John. F.;
Stephenson, David B.;
Bailey, Trevor C.;
Austin, John

Publication type:

Article

Could detection and attribution of climate change trends be spurious regression?

Published in:

Climate Dynamics, 2022, v. 59, n. 9/10, p. 2785, doi. 10.1007/s00382-022-06242-z

By:

Cummins, Donald P.;
Stephenson, David B.;
Stott, Peter A.

Publication type:

Article

How to create an operational multi-model of seasonal forecasts?

Published in:

Climate Dynamics, 2020, v. 55, n. 5/6, p. 1141, doi. 10.1007/s00382-020-05314-2

By:

Hemri, Stephan;
Bhend, Jonas;
Liniger, Mark A.;
Manzanas, Rodrigo;
Siegert, Stefan;
Stephenson, David B.;
Gutiérrez, José M.;
Brookshaw, Anca;
Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.

Publication type:

Article

Evidence of trends in daily climate extremes over southern and west Africa.

Published in:

Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres, 2006, v. 111, n. D14, p. n/a, doi. 10.1029/2005JD006289

By:

New, Mark;
Hewitson, Bruce;
Stephenson, David B.;
Tsiga, Alois;
Kruger, Andries;
Manhique, Atanasio;
Gomez, Bernard;
Coelho, Caio A. S.;
Masisi, Dorcas Ntiki;
Kululanga, Elina;
Mbambalala, Ernest;
Adesina, Francis;
Saleh, Hemed;
Kanyanga, Joseph;
Adosi, Juliana;
Bulane, Lebohang;
Fortunata, Lubega;
Mdoka, Marshall L.;
Lajoie, Robert

Publication type:

Article

The development of an early warning system for climate-sensitive disease risk with a focus on dengue epidemics in Southeast Brazil The development of an early warning system for climate-sensitive disease risk with a focus on dengue epidemics in Southeast Brazil

Published in:

Statistics in Medicine, 2013, v. 32, n. 5, p. 864, doi. 10.1002/sim.5549

By:

Lowe, Rachel;
Bailey, Trevor C.;
Stephenson, David B.;
Jupp, Tim E.;
Graham, Richard J.;
Barcellos, Christovam;
Carvalho, Marilia Sá

Publication type:

Article

State space models for non‐stationary intermittently coupled systems: an application to the North Atlantic oscillation.

Published in:

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), 2019, v. 68, n. 5, p. 1259, doi. 10.1111/rssc.12354

By:

Sansom, Philip G.;
Williamson, Daniel B.;
Stephenson, David B.

Publication type:

Article

Forced trends and internal variability in climate change projections of extreme European windstorm frequency and severity.

Published in:

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2024, v. 150, n. 765, p. 4933, doi. 10.1002/qj.4849

By:

Priestley, Matthew D. K.;
Stephenson, David B.;
Scaife, Adam A.;
Bannister, Daniel;
Allen, Christopher J. T.;
Wilkie, David

Publication type:

Article

The ensemble‐adjusted Ignorance Score for forecasts issued as normal distributions.

Published in:

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2019, v. 145, p. 129, doi. 10.1002/qj.3447

By:

Siegert, Stefan;
Ferro, Christopher A. T.;
Stephenson, David B.;
Leutbecher, Martin

Publication type:

Article

New perspectives on the collective risk of extratropical cyclones.

Published in:

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2016, v. 142, n. 694, p. 243, doi. 10.1002/qj.2649

By:

Hunter, Alasdair;
Stephenson, David B.;
Economou, Theo;
Holland, Mark;
Cook, Ian

Publication type:

Article

Storm track signature in total ozone during northern hemisphere winter.

Published in:

Geophysical Research Letters, 1998, v. 25, n. 13, p. 2413, doi. 10.1029/98GL01852

By:

Orsolini, Yvan J.;
Stephenson, David B.;
Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.

Publication type:

Article

Three recommendations for evaluating climate predictions.

Published in:

Meteorological Applications, 2013, v. 20, n. 2, p. 246, doi. 10.1002/met.1409

By:

Fricker, Thomas E.;
Ferro, Christopher A. T.;
Stephenson, David B.

Publication type:

Article

Assessing and reporting the quality of commercial weather forecasts.

Published in:

Meteorological Applications, 2008, v. 15, n. 4, p. 423, doi. 10.1002/met.85

By:

Pascal J. Mailier;
Ian T. Jolliffe;
David B. Stephenson

Publication type:

Article

How to judge the quality and value of weather forecast products.

Published in:

Meteorological Applications, 2001, v. 8, n. 3, p. 307, doi. 10.1017/S1350482701003061

By:

Thornes, John E;
Stephenson, David B

Publication type:

Article

Calibration of Probabilistic Forecasts of Binary Events.

Published in:

Monthly Weather Review, 2009, v. 137, n. 3, p. 1142, doi. 10.1175/2008MWR2579.1

By:

Primo, Cristina;
Ferro, Christopher A. T.;
Jolliffe, Ian T.;
Stephenson, David B.

Publication type:

Article

Proper Scores for Probability Forecasts Can Never Be Equitable.

Published in:

Monthly Weather Review, 2008, v. 136, n. 4, p. 1505, doi. 10.1175/2007MWR2194.1

By:

Jolliffe, Ian T.;
Stephenson, David B.

Publication type:

Article

Serial Clustering of Extratropical Cyclones.

Published in:

Monthly Weather Review, 2006, v. 134, n. 8, p. 2224, doi. 10.1175/MWR3160.1

By:

Mailier, Pascal J.;
Stephenson, David B.;
Ferro, Christopher A. T.;
Hodges, Kevin I.

Publication type:

Article

New Tools for Comparing Beliefs about the Timing of Recurrent Events with Climate Time Series Datasets.

Published in:

Weather, Climate & Society, 2016, v. 8, n. 4, p. 493, doi. 10.1175/WCAS-D-15-0054.1

By:

STILLER-REEVE, MATHEW ALEXANDER;
STEPHENSON, DAVID B.;
SPENGLER, THOMAS

Publication type:

Article

A Probabilistic Paradigm for the Parametric Insurance of Natural Hazards.

Published in:

Risk Analysis: An International Journal, 2018, v. 38, n. 11, p. 2400, doi. 10.1111/risa.13122

By:

Figueiredo, Rui;
Martina, Mario L.V.;
Stephenson, David B.;
Youngman, Benjamin D.

Publication type:

Article

On the temporal clustering of US floods and its relationship to climate teleconnection patterns.

Published in:

International Journal of Climatology, 2013, v. 33, n. 3, p. 629, doi. 10.1002/joc.3458

By:

Villarini, Gabriele;
Smith, James A.;
Vitolo, Renato;
Stephenson, David B.

Publication type:

Article

Estimation of trends in extreme melt-season duration at Svalbard.

Published in:

International Journal of Climatology, 2012, v. 32, n. 14, p. 2227, doi. 10.1002/joc.3395

By:

Kvamstø, Nils Gunnar;
Steinskog, Dag Johan;
Stephenson, David B.;
Tjøstheim, Dag Bjarne

Publication type:

Article

Impact of Labrador sea-ice extent on the North Atlantic oscillation.

Published in:

International Journal of Climatology, 2004, v. 24, n. 5, p. 603, doi. 10.1002/joc.1015

By:

Nils Gunnar Kvamstø;
Paul Skeie;
David B. Stephenson

Publication type:

Article

Mediated and direct effects of the North Atlantic Ocean on winter temperatures in northwest Europe.

Published in:

International Journal of Climatology, 2003, v. 23, n. 3, p. 245, doi. 10.1002/joc.867

By:

Martina M. Junge;
David B. Stephenson

Publication type:

Article

Is the North Atlantic Oscillation a random walk?

Published in:

International Journal of Climatology, 2000, v. 20, n. 1, p. 1, doi. 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(200001)20:1<1::AID-JOC456>3.0.CO;2-P

By:

David B. Stephenson;
Valentina Pavan;
Roxana Bojariu

Publication type:

Article

Summer rainfall and wheat grain quality: Relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Published in:

Weather (00431656), 2003, v. 58, n. 4, p. 155, doi. 10.1256/wea.38.02

By:

Kettlewell, Peter S.;
Stephenson, David B.;
Atkinson, Mark D.;
Hollins, Philip D.

Publication type:

Article

The impact of changing the horizontal diffusion scheme on the northern winter climatology of a general circulation model.

Published in:

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 1995, v. 121, n. 521, p. 211, doi. 10.1002/qj.49712152110

By:

Stephenson, David B.

Publication type:

Article

The northern hemisphere tropospheric response to changes in the gravity-wave drag scheme in a perpetual January GCM.

Published in:

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 1994, v. 120, n. 517, p. 699, doi. 10.1002/qj.49712051709

By:

Stephenson, David B.

Publication type:

Article

A statistical, machine learning framework for parametric risk transfer.

Published in:

Geophysical Research Abstracts, 2019, v. 21, p. 1

By:

Martina, Mario L.V.;
Figueiredo, Rui;
Stephenson, David B.;
Youngman, Benjamin D.

Publication type:

Article

Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil.

Published in:

eLife, 2016, p. 1, doi. 10.7554/eLife.11285

By:

Lowe, Rachel;
Coelho, Caio A. S.;
Barcellos, Christovam;
Sá Carvalho, Marilia;
De Castro Catão, Rafael;
Coelho, Giovanini E.;
Massa Ramalho, Walter;
Bailey, Trevor C.;
Stephenson, David B.;
Rodó, Xavier

Publication type:

Article

From Atmospheric Dynamics to Insurance Losses: An Interdisciplinary Workshop on European Storms.

Published in:

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2019, v. 100, n. 6, p. ES175, doi. 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0026.1

By:

Pinto, Joaquim G.;
Pantillon, Florian;
Ludwig, Patrick;
Déroche, Madeleine-Sophie;
Leoncini, Giovanni;
Raible, Christoph C.;
Shaffrey, Len C.;
Stephenson, David B.

Publication type:

Article

Calibration Strategies: A Source of Additional Uncertainty in Climate Change Projections.

Published in:

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2012, v. 93, n. 1, p. 21, doi. 10.1175/2011BAMS3110.1

By:

Ho, Chun Kit;
Stephenson, David B.;
Collins, Matthew;
Ferro, Christopher A. T.;
Brown, Simon J.

Publication type:

Article

On Constraining Projections of Future Climate Using Observations and Simulations From Multiple Climate Models.

Published in:

Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2021, v. 116, n. 534, p. 546, doi. 10.1080/01621459.2020.1851696

By:

Sansom, Philip G.;
Stephenson, David B.;
Bracegirdle, Thomas J.

Publication type:

Article

Granger Causality of Coupled Climate Processes: Ocean Feedback on the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Published in:

Journal of Climate, 2006, v. 19, n. 7, p. 1182, doi. 10.1175/JCLI3653.1

By:

Mosedale, Timothy J.;
Stephenson, David B.;
Collins, Matthew;
Mills, Terence C.

Publication type:

Article

Simple Nonparametric Techniques for Exploring Changing Probability Distributions of Weather.

Published in:

Journal of Climate, 2005, v. 18, n. 21, p. 4344, doi. 10.1175/JCLI3518.1

By:

Ferro, Christopher A. T.;
Hannachi, Abdelwaheb;
Stephenson, David B.

Publication type:

Article

Observed Trends and Teleconnections of the Siberian High: A Recently Declining Center of Action.

Published in:

Journal of Climate, 2005, v. 18, n. 9, p. 1411, doi. 10.1175/JCLI3352.1

By:

Panagiotopoulos, Fotis;
Shahgedanova, Maria;
Hannachi, Abdelwaheb;
Stephenson, David B.

Publication type:

Article

Atlantic Atmosphere–Ocean Interaction: A Stochastic Climate Model–Based Diagnosis.

Published in:

Journal of Climate, 2005, v. 18, n. 7, p. 1086, doi. 10.1175/JCLI-3315.1

By:

Mosedale, Timothy J.;
Stephenson, David B.;
Collins, Matthew

Publication type:

Article

CORRIGENDUM.

Published in:

2002

By:

Ambaum, Maarten H. P.;
Hoskins, Brian J.;
Stephenson, David B.

Publication type:

Erratum