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- Title
The impact of the demographic transition on dengue in Thailand: insights from a statistical analysis and mathematical modeling.
- Authors
Cummings, Derek A T; Iamsirithaworn, Sopon; Lessler, Justin T; McDermott, Aidan; Prasanthong, Rungnapa; Nisalak, Ananda; Jarman, Richard G; Burke, Donald S; Gibbons, Robert V
- Abstract
An increase in the average age of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases has been reported in Thailand. The cause of this increase is not known. Possible explanations include a reduction in transmission due to declining mosquito populations, declining contact between human and mosquito, and changes in reporting. We propose that a demographic shift toward lower birth and death rates has reduced dengue transmission and lengthened the interval between large epidemics.
- Publication
PLoS medicine, 2009, Vol 6, Issue 9, pe1000139
- ISSN
1549-1676
- Publication type
Journal Article
- DOI
10.1371/journal.pmed.1000139