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- Title
External control of 20th century temperature by natural and anthropogenic forcings.
- Authors
Stott, P A; Tett, S F; Jones, G S; Allen, M R; Mitchell, J F; Jenkins, G J
- Abstract
A comparison of observations with simulations of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model shows that both natural and anthropogenic factors have contributed significantly to 20th century temperature changes. The model successfully simulates global mean and large-scale land temperature variations, indicating that the climate response on these scales is strongly influenced by external factors. More than 80% of observed multidecadal-scale global mean temperature variations and more than 60% of 10- to 50-year land temperature variations are due to changes in external forcings. Anthropogenic global warming under a standard emissions scenario is predicted to continue at a rate similar to that observed in recent decades.
- Publication
Science (New York, N.Y.), 2000, Vol 290, Issue 5499, p2133
- ISSN
0036-8075
- Publication type
Journal Article
- DOI
10.1126/science.290.5499.2133