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- Title
Reconstructing past climate from noisy data.
- Authors
von Storch, Hans; Zorita, Eduardo; Jones, Julie M; Dimitriev, Yegor; González-Rouco, Fidel; Tett, Simon F B
- Abstract
Empirical reconstructions of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature in the past millennium based on multiproxy records depict small-amplitude variations followed by a clear warming trend in the past two centuries. We use a coupled atmosphere-ocean model simulation of the past 1000 years as a surrogate climate to test the skill of these methods, particularly at multidecadal and centennial time scales. Idealized proxy records are represented by simulated grid-point temperature, degraded with statistical noise. The centennial variability of the NH temperature is underestimated by the regression-based methods applied here, suggesting that past variations may have been at least a factor of 2 larger than indicated by empirical reconstructions.
- Publication
Science (New York, N.Y.), 2004, Vol 306, Issue 5696, p679
- ISSN
1095-9203
- Publication type
Journal Article
- DOI
10.1126/science.1096109