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- Title
Refining the criteria for stalled fertility declines: an application to rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, 1990-2005.
- Authors
Moultrie, Tom A; Hosegood, Victoria; McGrath, Nuala; Hill, Caterina; Herbst, Kobus; Newell, Marie-Louise
- Abstract
Stalled fertility declines have been identified in several regions across the developing world, but the current conceptualization of a stalled fertility decline is poorly theorized and does not lend itself to objective measurement. We propose a more rigorous and statistically testable definition of stalled fertility decline that can be applied to time-series data. We then illustrate the utility of our definition through its application to data from rural South Africa for the period 1990-2005 collected from a demographic surveillance site. Application of the approach suggests that fertility decline has indeed stalled in rural KwaZulu-Natal, at about three children per woman. The stall, some 20 percent above the replacement fertility level, does not appear to be associated with a rise in wanted fertility or attenuated access to contraceptive methods. This identification of a stalled fertility decline provides the first evidence of such a stall in southern Africa, the region with the lowest fertility levels in sub-Saharan Africa.
- Publication
Studies in family planning, 2008, Vol 39, Issue 1, p39
- ISSN
0039-3665
- Publication type
Journal Article
- DOI
10.1111/j.1728-4465.2008.00149.x