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- Title
Pancreatic Cancer Death Rates by Race Among US Men and Women, 1970-2009.
- Authors
Jiemin Ma; Siegel, Rebecca; Jemal, Ahmedin
- Abstract
Background Few studies have examined trends in pancreatic cancer death rates in the United States, and there have been no studies examining recent trends using age-period-cohort analysis. Methods Annual percentage change in pancreatic cancer death rates was calculated for 1970 to 2009 by sex and race among adults aged 35 to 84 years using US mortality data provided by the National Center for Health Statistics and Joinpoint Regression. Age-period-cohort modeling was performed to evaluate the changes in cohort and period effects. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results In white men, pancreatic cancer death rates decreased by 0.7% per year from 1970 to 1995 and then increased by 0.4% per year through 2009. Among white women, rates increased slightly from 1970 to 1984, stabilized until the late 1990s, then increased by 0.5% per year through 2009. In contrast, the rates among blacks increased between 1970 and the late 1980s (women) or early 1990s (men) and then decreased thereafter. Age-period-cohort analysis showed that pancreatic cancer death risk was highest for the 1900 to 1910 birth cohort in men and the 1920 to 1930 birth cohort in women and there was a statistically significant increase in period effects since the late 1990s in both white men and white women (two-sided Wald test, P < .001). Conclusions In the United States, whites and blacks experienced opposite trends in pancreatic cancer death rates between 1970 and 2009 that are largely unexplainable by known risk factors. This study underscores the needs for urgent action to curb the increasing trends of pancreatic cancer in whites and for better understanding of the etiology of this disease.
- Publication
JNCI: Journal of the National Cancer Institute, 2013, Vol 105, Issue 22, p1694
- ISSN
0027-8874
- Publication type
Academic Journal
- DOI
10.1093/jnci/djt292