KREDİ DÖNGÜLERİ NEDİR? TÜRKİYE İÇİN BİR UYGULAMA.

AÇIKALIN, Sezgin; KAPUCU, Süleyman İlker

The global economic crisis that the world faced in 2008 showed that serious financial crises are not limited to less developed countries. When the rapid growth in credits is not controlled, it can lead to a economic collapse and banking crises even in the most developed countries. In this respect, it is important to identify periods of credit expansion and contraction and to keep the financial market under control against overheating and cooling. Our study aims to introduce credit cycles and identify quarterly credit cycles and their turning points in Turkey. We use Bry Boschan algorithm for identify turning points. According to the analysis which made by the credit/Gross domestic product variable, 6 expansion and contraction periods identified between 1998:1-2023:3 in Turkey. According to our analysis results, consistent with the literature, financial crises in the period under review coincide with the peaks of credit cycles and the subsequent contraction periods. However, contrary to the literature, business cycles in Turkey last longer than credit cycles in some periods. Moreover, while the structural reforms implemented by the monetary authority between 2001 and 2004 were effective in keeping credit cycles in the expansion phase for a long time, market interventions such as interest rate cuts and credit guaranteed loans had an impact only in the very short term.

GLOBAL Financial Crisis, 2008-2009; DEVELOPING countries; INTEREST rates; BUSINESS cycles; BANKING industry

Dumlupinar University Journal of Social Science / Dumlupinar Üniversitesi Soysyal Bilimler Dergisi, 2024, Issue 82, p345

1302-1842

Academic Journal

10.51290/dpusbe.1533421