The Spillover Effects of the US Unconventional Monetary Policy: New Evidence from Asian Developing Countries.

Thi Bich Ngoc Tran; Hoang Cam Huong Pham

This paper aims to trace the monthly responses of equity prices, long-term interest rates, and exchange rates in Asian developing markets to the US unconventional monetary policy (UMP). The main research question is to explore whether UMP shocks exist in those markets. We also consider the differences in the mean responses of those asset prices between traditional and non-traditional monetary policy phases. To address such concerns, we employ a panel vector auto regression with exogenous variables (Panel VARX) model and estimate the model by the least-squares dummy variable (LSDV) estimator in three different periods spanning from 2004M2 to 2018M4. The first finding is that UMP shocks from the US are associated with a surge in equity prices, a decline in long-term interest rates, and an appreciation of currencies in Asian developing markets. In contrast, the conventional monetary policy shocks from the US seem to exert adverse effects on these recipient countries. These empirical results suggest that the policymakers in Asian developing countries should cautiously take into account the spillover effects from the US unconventional monetary policy once it is executed.

MONETARY policy; DEVELOPING countries; INTEREST rates; FOREIGN exchange rates; DUMMY variables

Journal of Risk & Financial Management, 2020, Vol 13, Issue 8, p1

1911-8066

Academic Journal

10.3390/jrfm13080165