Title: On the method of long-range forecasting of ice conditions in the European seas of Russia.
Authors: Dumanskaya, I.
Abstract: Studied are the statistical relationships of the parameters of surface air temperature field and pressure field with the characteristics of ice processes in the Barents, White, Baltic, Azov, and Caspian seas. The parameters of harmonic components are determined for computing the interannual variability of ice characteristics of these seas. Presented are the description and computation results of the ensemble method of ice conditions forecasting in the Russian seas consisting of three components. Determined is the efficiency of each component and of the whole method. The ensemble method of ice forecasting yielded a good result for the ports of non-Arctic seas (efficiency is 15-30% as compared with the climatic forecast) that enabled to use it in the operational practice of the Hydrometcenter of Russia.
Subjects: RUSSIA; EARTH temperature; STATISTICS; ATMOSPHERE; FORECASTING
Publication: Russian Meteorology & Hydrology, 2011, Vol 36, Issue 11, p747
ISSN: 1068-3739
Publication type: Academic Journal
DOI: 10.3103/S1068373911110069

On the method of long-range forecasting of ice conditions in the European seas of Russia.

Dumanskaya, I.