WHAT HAPPENS TO NUCLEAR POWER: A DISCRETE CHOICE MODEL OF TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION.

Ellis, Randall P.; Zimmerman, Martin B.

Nuclear power is in a great deal of trouble in the U.S. Well before the incident at the Three-Mile Island station of the General Public Utilities Corporation, new orders for nuclear power plants evaporated and many reactors under construction were deferred or cancelled. The optimism of the early 1970s turned to pessimism about the future of nuclear power. The current administration has made restoring nuclear power to health a central energy policy objective. For such a policy to succeed, it is important to understand what led to the current state of affairs. This paper attempts to provide some insights into these issues. There are several factors that have contributed to the current state of the industry. The growth in demand for electricity has slowed substantially since 1973. The regulatory system has kept electric rates down as costs increased leading to financial difficulties for many utilities. Both these factors have led to few new orders for power plants of any kind as well as cancellation of both coal and nuclear plants.

NUCLEAR power plants; POWER plants; MATHEMATICAL models; POWER resources; ELECTRIC power production; PARAMETER estimation; ELECTRIC rates; ENERGY policy

Review of Economics & Statistics, 1983, Vol 65, Issue 2, p234

0034-6535

Academic Journal

10.2307/1924489