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- Title
Machine learning and spatio-temporal analysis of meteorological factors on waterborne diseases in Bangladesh.
- Authors
Chowdhury, Arman Hossain; Rahman, Md. Siddikur
- Abstract
Background: Bangladesh is facing a formidable challenge in mitigating waterborne diseases risk exacerbated by climate change. However, a comprehensive understanding of the spatio-temporal dynamics of these diseases at the district level remains elusive. Therefore, this study aimed to fill this gap by investigating the spatio-temporal pattern and identifying the best tree-based ML models for determining the meteorological factors associated with waterborne diseases in Bangladesh. Methods: This study used district-level reported cases of waterborne diseases (cholera, amoebiasis, typhoid and hepatitis A) obtained from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) and meteorological data (temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and precipitation) sourced from NASA for the period spanning 2017 to 2020. Exploratory spatial analysis, spatial regression and tree-based machine learning models were utilized to analyze the data. Results: From 2017 and 2020, Bangladesh reported 73, 606 cholera, 38, 472 typhoid, 2, 510 hepatitis A and 1, 643 amoebiasis disease cases. Among the waterborne diseases cholera showed higher incidence rates in Chapai-Nawabganj (456.23), Brahmanbaria (417.44), Faridpur (225.07), Nilphamari (188.62) and Pirojpur (171.62) districts. The spatial regression model identified mean temperature (β = 12.16, s.e: 3.91) as the significant risk factor of waterborne diseases. The optimal XGBoost model highlighted mean and minimum temperature, relative humidity and precipitation as determinants associated with waterborne diseases in Bangladesh from 2017 to 2020. Conclusions: The findings from the study, incorporating the One Health perspective, provide insights for planning early warning, prevention, and control strategies to combat waterborne diseases in Bangladesh and similar endemic countries. Precautionary measures and intensified surveillance need to be implemented in certain high-risk districts for waterborne diseases across the country. Author summary: Bangladesh is increasingly vulnerable to waterborne illnesses, exacerbated by climate change. This study uses spatial analysis, regression, and machine learning models to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of cholera, typhoid, hepatitis A, and amoebiasis across districts from 2017 to 2020. Districts with the highest prevalence of cholera include Brahmanbaria, Chapai-Nawabganj, and others. The study identifies mean and minimum temperatures, relative humidity, and precipitation as the main climatic factors influencing disease transmission. The findings highlight the need for targeted interventions, early warning systems, and improved surveillance in high-risk areas to prevent waterborne infections. These insights align with the One Health approach to managing health risks in Bangladesh and similar regions.
- Subjects
WATERBORNE infection; DISEASE risk factors; MACHINE learning; INFECTIOUS disease transmission; HEPATITIS A
- Publication
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2025, Vol 19, Issue 1, p1
- ISSN
1935-2727
- Publication type
Academic Journal
- DOI
10.1371/journal.pntd.0012800