Care to Wager Again? An Appraisal of Paul Ehrlich's Counterbet Offer to Julian Simon, Part 1: Outcomes.

Desrochers, Pierre; Geloso, Vincent; Szurmak, Joanna

Objective: This paper provides the first comprehensive assessment of the outcome of Paul Ehrlich and Stephen Schneider's counteroffer (1995) to economist Julian Simon following Ehrlich's loss in the famous Ehrlich‐Simon wager on economic growth and the price of natural resources (1980‐1990). Methods: Literature review, data gathering and critical assessment of the indicators and proxies suggested or implied by Ehrlich and Schneider. Critical assessment of Simon's reasons for rejecting the bet. Data gathering for his alternative indicators. Results: For indicators that can be measured satisfactorily, the balance of the outcomes favors the Ehrlich‐Schneider claims for the initial ten‐year period. Extending the timeline and accounting for the measurement limitations or dubious relevance of many of their indicators, however, shifts the balance of the evidence towards Simon's perspective. Conclusion: Although the outcomes favour the Ehrlich‐Schneider claims for the initial ten‐year period, Ehrlich and Schneider.s indicators yielded mixed results in the long run. Simon's preferred indicators of direct human welfare would yield largely favourable outcomes if the bet were extended into the present. Based on this, we claim that Simon's optimistic perspective was once again largely validated.

PRICE increases; NATURAL resources; HUMANITARIANISM; ECONOMIC expansion

Social Science Quarterly (Wiley-Blackwell), 2021, Vol 102, Issue 2, p786

0038-4941

Academic Journal

10.1111/ssqu.12928