Beyond the “High-Tech” Suits: Predicting 2012 Olympic Swim Performances.

Brammer, ChrisL.; Stager, JoelM.; Tanner, DaveA.

The purpose of the authors in this study was to predict the mean swim time of the top eight swimmers in swim events at the 2012 Olympic Games based upon prior Olympic performances from 1972 through 2008. Using the mean top eight time across all years, a best fit power curve [time = a × yearb] was calculated and used to predict the finish time of the finalists for each event. Every event except the women's 100 breaststroke is predicted to be slower in 2012 than it was in 2008. However, the results of the 2008 swimming competition were shown to be biased, likely caused by the now banned “tech suits.” The authors hypothesize that the 2012 Olympic performances will realign with the prediction curves, thus demonstrating the reliability and sensitivity of the model and further confirming the “suit bias” of 2008. Final conclusions will be dependent upon the athletes' performances at the 2012 Games.

ATHLETIC ability; CONFIDENCE intervals; SWIMMING; STATISTICAL models; DESCRIPTIVE statistics

Measurement in Physical Education & Exercise Science, 2012, Vol 16, Issue 3, p183

1091-367X

Academic Journal

10.1080/1091367X.2012.700253