A reliable numerical investigation of an SEIR model of measles disease dynamics with fuzzy criteria.

Dayan, Fazal; Ahmed, Nauman; Rafiq, Muhammad; Raza, Ali; Khan, Ilyas; eldin, Elsayed Mohamed Tag

The terms susceptibility, exposure, infectiousness, and recovered all have some inherent ambiguity because different population members have different susceptibility levels, exposure levels, infectiousness levels, and recovery patterns. This uncertainty becomes more pronounced when examining population subgroups characterized by distinct behaviors, cultural norms, and varying degrees of resilience across different age brackets, thereby introducing the possibility of fluctuations. There is a need for more accurate models that take into account the various levels of susceptibility, exposure, infectiousness, and recovery of the individuals. A fuzzy SEIR model of the dynamics of the measles disease is discussed in this article. The rates of disease transmission and recovery are treated as fuzzy sets. Three distinct numerical approaches, the forward Euler, fourth-order Runge-Kutta, and nonstandard finite difference (NSFD) are employed for the resolution of this fuzzy SEIR model. Next, the outcomes of the three methods are examined. The results of the simulation demonstrate that the NSFD method adeptly portrays convergent solutions across various time step sizes. Conversely, the conventional Euler and RK-4 methods only exhibit positivity and convergence solutions when handling smaller step sizes. Even when considering larger step sizes, the NSFD method maintains its consistency, showcasing its efficacy. This demonstrates the NSFD technique's superior reliability when compared to the other two methods, while maintaining all essential aspects of a continuous dynamical system. Additionally, the results from numerical and simulation studies offer solid proof that the suggested NSFD technique is a reliable and effective tool for controlling these kinds of dynamical systems.The convergence and consistency analysis of the NSFD method are also studied.

FINITE differences; EULER method; INFECTIOUS disease transmission; FUZZY sets; DYNAMICAL systems

Scientific Reports, 2023, Vol 13, Issue 1, p1

2045-2322

Academic Journal

10.1038/s41598-023-42953-x