Economic Shock in a Climate Scenario and Its Impact on Surface Temperatures.

Ran, Qi; Lee, Shao‐Yi; Moore, John C.; Min, Chao; Dong, Wenjie

A socio‐economic crisis was added to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. This idealized climate scenario was simulated using the Community Earth System Model version 1.2.2 to determine the transient climate response to a two‐year reduction of anthropogenic emissions. Global and regional (Asian, North American and European) mean surface temperatures (MSTs) were significantly warmer than baseline for 5 years. This was followed by cooler‐than‐baseline MSTs lasting for about two decades until the end of the simulation. Emission reduction of only carbon dioxide (CO2) resulted in multi‐decadal cooler‐than‐baseline MSTs. Emission reduction of aerosols and aerosol precursors resulted in strong short‐term warmer‐than‐baseline MSTs for the first five years after the start of the crisis. This was followed by weaker multi‐decadal warmer‐than‐baseline MSTs. The greatest warming occurred over Europe. This could be explained by the inter‐scenario differences in the state of the North Atlantic Oscillation. However, global, Asian and North American MSTs were all warmer than baseline. Plain Language Summary: An Earth System Model was used to examine the climate impact of hypothetical two‐year emission reductions due to a socio‐economic crisis. Global and regional (Asian, North American and European) mean surface temperatures warmed immediately compared to the baseline scenario and continued for five years. This was followed by a cooling that lasted for decades. Emission reduction of only carbon dioxide resulted in multi‐decadal cooling. Emission reduction of only aerosols resulted in strong short‐term warming followed by weaker multi‐decadal warming. Key Points: Simulations of the climate response to three idealized scenarios reflecting a global economic crisis caused by a two‐year home quarantineSubstantial reductions in carbon dioxide and aerosol emissions resulted in short‐term warming, followed by cooling until the end of simulationGreatest warming occurred over Europe in response to reductions in aerosols and persisted for two decades, which was explained by North Atlantic Oscillation phase

EUROPE; INTERGOVERNMENTAL Panel on Climate Change; CARBON dioxide mitigation; SURFACE temperature; ECONOMIC shock; NORTH Atlantic oscillation; GLOBAL Financial Crisis, 2008-2009

Earth's Future, 2021, Vol 9, Issue 6, p1

2328-4277

Academic Journal

10.1029/2021EF002061