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- Title
Spatio-temporal patterns of IED usage by the Provisional Irish Republican Army.
- Authors
TENCH, STEPHEN; FRY, HANNAH; GILL, PAUL
- Abstract
In this paper, a unique dataset of improvised explosive device attacks during “The Troubles” in Northern Ireland (NI) is analysed via a Hawkes process model. It is found that this past dependent model is a good fit to improvised explosive device attacks yielding key insights about the nature of terrorism in NI. We also present a novel approach to quantitatively investigate some of the sociological theory surrounding the Provisional Irish Republican Army which challenges previously held assumptions concerning changes seen in the organisation. Finally, we extend our use of the Hawkes process model by considering a multidimensional version which permits both self and mutual-excitations. This allows us to test how the Provisional Irish Republican Army responded to past improvised explosive device attacks on different geographical scales from which we find evidence for the autonomy of the organisation over the six counties of NI and Belfast. By incorporating a second dataset concerning British Security Force (BSF) interventions, the multidimensional model allows us to test counter-terrorism (CT) operations in NI where we find subsequent increases in violence.
- Subjects
NORTHERN Ireland; IMPROVISED explosive devices; POINT processes; COUNTERTERRORISM; CHANGE-point problems; IRISH Republican Army
- Publication
European Journal of Applied Mathematics, 2016, Vol 27, Issue 3, p377
- ISSN
0956-7925
- Publication type
Academic Journal
- DOI
10.1017/S0956792515000686