Geographic Profiling to Assess the Risk of Rare Plant Poaching in Natural Areas.

Young, John; Manen, Frank; Thatcher, Cindy

We demonstrate the use of an expert-assisted spatial model to examine geographic factors influencing the poaching risk of a rare plant (American ginseng, Panax quinquefolius L.) in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA. Following principles of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), we identified a hierarchy of 11 geographic factors deemed important to poaching risk and requested law enforcement personnel of the National Park Service to rank those factors in a series of pair-wise comparisons. We used those comparisons to determine statistical weightings of each factor and combined them into a spatial model predicting poaching risk. We tested the model using 69 locations of previous poaching incidents recorded by law enforcement personnel. These locations occurred more frequently in areas predicted by the model to have a higher risk of poaching than random locations. The results of our study can be used to evaluate resource protection strategies and to target law enforcement activities.

SHENANDOAH National Park (Va.); VIRGINIA; MATHEMATICAL models; GEOSPATIAL data; RARE plants; LAW enforcement officials

Environmental Management, 2011, Vol 48, Issue 3, p577

0364-152X

Academic Journal

10.1007/s00267-011-9687-3