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From observations to forecasts - Part 9: what is decadal forecasting?
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- Weather (00431656), 2011, v. 66, n. 6, p. 160, doi. 10.1002/wea.794
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Predictability of European winter 2020/2021: Influence of a mid‐winter sudden stratospheric warming.
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- Atmospheric Science Letters (John Wiley & Sons, Inc. ), 2022, v. 23, n. 12, p. 1, doi. 10.1002/asl.1126
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- Article
Predictability of European Winters 2017/2018 and 2018/2019: Contrasting influences from the Tropics and stratosphere.
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- Atmospheric Science Letters (John Wiley & Sons, Inc. ), 2021, v. 22, n. 1, p. 1, doi. 10.1002/asl.1009
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Predictability of European winter 2015/2016.
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- Atmospheric Science Letters (John Wiley & Sons, Inc. ), 2017, v. 18, n. 2, p. 38, doi. 10.1002/asl.721
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Case studies in interannual to decadal climate predictability.
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- Climate Dynamics, 2010, v. 35, n. 7/8, p. 1169, doi. 10.1007/s00382-009-0672-y
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Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts for the Yangtze River Basin of China in Summer 2019 from an Improved Climate Service.
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- Journal of Meteorological Research, 2020, v. 34, n. 5, p. 904, doi. 10.1007/s13351-020-0049-z
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Skilful predictions of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation one year ahead.
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- Nature Geoscience, 2016, v. 9, n. 11, p. 809, doi. 10.1038/ngeo2824
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Towards Useful Decadal Climate Services.
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- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2022, v. 103, n. 7, p. 1705, doi. 10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0190.1
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WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update: A Prediction for 2021-25.
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- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2022, v. 103, n. 4, p. E1117, doi. 10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0311.1
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HOW SKILLFUL ARE THE MULTIANNUAL FORECASTS OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY?
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- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2018, v. 99, n. 2, p. 403, doi. 10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0025.1
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Labrador Sea sub-surface density as a precursor of multi-decadal variability in the North Atlantic: a multi-model study.
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- Earth System Dynamics Discussions, 2020, p. 1, doi. 10.5194/esd-2020-83
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- Article
Impact of volcanic eruptions on CMIP6 decadal predictions: a multi-model analysis.
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- Earth System Dynamics, 2024, v. 15, n. 2, p. 501, doi. 10.5194/esd-15-501-2024
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- Article
Labrador Sea subsurface density as a precursor of multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic: a multi-model study.
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- Earth System Dynamics, 2021, v. 12, n. 2, p. 419, doi. 10.5194/esd-12-419-2021
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Historical Simulations With HadGEM3‐GC3.1 for CMIP6.
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- Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 2020, v. 12, n. 6, p. 1, doi. 10.1029/2019MS001995
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- Article
A Multisystem View of Wintertime NAO Seasonal Predictions.
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- Journal of Climate, 2017, v. 30, n. 4, p. 1461, doi. 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0153.1
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The Representation of Atmospheric Blocking and the Associated Low-Frequency Variability in Two Seasonal Prediction Systems.
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- Journal of Climate, 2014, v. 27, n. 24, p. 9082, doi. 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00291.1
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Predictions of Climate Several Years Ahead Using an Improved Decadal Prediction System.
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- Journal of Climate, 2014, v. 27, n. 20, p. 7550, doi. 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00069.1
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- Article
Comments on 'Multiyear Predictions of North Atlantic Hurricane Frequency: Promise and Limitations'.
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- Journal of Climate, 2014, v. 27, n. 1, p. 487, doi. 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00220.1
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- Article
Mechanisms Linking Volcanic Aerosols to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.
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- Journal of Climate, 2012, v. 25, n. 8, p. 3039, doi. 10.1175/2011JCLI4067.1
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- Article
Impact of volcanic eruptions on CMIP6 decadal predictions: A multi-model analysis.
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- Earth System Dynamics Discussions, 2023, p. 1, doi. 10.5194/esd-2023-36
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A multisystem view of NAO seasonal predictability in wintertime.
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- Geophysical Research Abstracts, 2018, v. 20, p. 4833
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Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6.
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- Geophysical Research Letters, 2021, v. 48, n. 3, p. 1, doi. 10.1029/2020GL091307
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Skilful Real‐Time Seasonal Forecasts of the Dry Northern European Summer 2018.
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- Geophysical Research Letters, 2019, v. 46, n. 21, p. 12368, doi. 10.1029/2019GL084659
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Skilful Seasonal Predictions of Summer European Rainfall.
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- Geophysical Research Letters, 2018, v. 45, n. 7, p. 3246, doi. 10.1002/2017GL076337
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The impact of Labrador Sea temperature and salinity variability on density and the subpolar AMOC in a decadal prediction system.
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- Geophysical Research Letters, 2016, v. 43, n. 23, p. 12,217, doi. 10.1002/2016GL070906
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Multiannual forecasts of Atlantic U.S. tropical cyclone wind damage potential.
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- Geophysical Research Letters, 2015, v. 42, n. 7, p. 2417, doi. 10.1002/2015GL063303
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Do seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions underestimate the predictability of the real world?
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- Geophysical Research Letters, 2014, v. 41, n. 15, p. 5620, doi. 10.1002/2014GL061146
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Forecast cooling of the Atlantic subpolar gyre and associated impacts.
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- Geophysical Research Letters, 2014, v. 41, n. 14, p. 5167, doi. 10.1002/2014GL060420
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Examining reliability of seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature forecasts: The role of ensemble dispersion.
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- Geophysical Research Letters, 2013, v. 40, n. 21, p. 5770, doi. 10.1002/2013GL057630
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Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions.
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- Climate Dynamics, 2013, v. 41, n. 11/12, p. 2875, doi. 10.1007/s00382-012-1600-0
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Impacts of Atlantic multidecadal variability on the tropical Pacific: a multi-model study.
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- NPJ Climate & Atmospheric Science, 2021, v. 4, n. 1, p. 1, doi. 10.1038/s41612-021-00188-5
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An ensemble reconstruction of ocean temperature, salinity, and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation 1960–2021.
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- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2024, v. 150, n. 758, p. 98, doi. 10.1002/qj.4587
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Seasonal forecast skill for extratropical cyclones and windstorms.
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- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2019, v. 145, n. 718, p. 92, doi. 10.1002/qj.3406
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A novel transport assimilation method for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26°N.
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- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2014, v. 140, n. 685, p. 2563, doi. 10.1002/qj.2321
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A comparative method to evaluate and validate stochastic parametrizations.
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- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2009, v. 135, n. 642, p. 1095, doi. 10.1002/qj.436
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Tropical rainfall predictions from multiple seasonal forecast systems.
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- International Journal of Climatology, 2019, v. 39, n. 2, p. 974, doi. 10.1002/joc.5855
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Role of volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols in the recent global surface warming slowdown.
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- Nature Climate Change, 2016, v. 6, n. 10, p. 936, doi. 10.1038/nclimate3058
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Feedbacks, Pattern Effects, and Efficacies in a Large Ensemble of HadGEM3‐GC3.1‐LL Historical Simulations.
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- Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres, 2024, v. 129, n. 15, p. 1, doi. 10.1029/2024JD041137
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Robust Multiyear Climate Impacts of Volcanic Eruptions in Decadal Prediction Systems.
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- Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres, 2020, v. 125, n. 9, p. 1, doi. 10.1029/2019JD031739
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Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and North Atlantic Jet: A Multimodel View from the Decadal Climate Prediction Project.
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- Journal of Climate, 2021, v. 34, n. 1, p. 347, doi. 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0981.1
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A Decadal Climate Service for Insurance: Skillful Multiyear Predictions of North Atlantic Hurricane Activity and U.S. Hurricane Damage.
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- Journal of Applied Meteorology & Climatology, 2023, v. 62, n. 9, p. 1151, doi. 10.1175/JAMC-D-22-0147.1
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