Optimal inspection for randomly triggered hidden deterioration processes.

Hijazy, Ayman; Zempléni, András

This paper deals with degradation processes whose onset is triggered at a random time and which stay hidden until they are discovered through inspection or when they begin to show symptoms. This is applicable in many healthcare and industrial scenarios, for example, in the modeling of breast cancer or termite infestation. In our model, we assume that symptoms appear after hitting a random critical threshold and that inspections may have a sensitivity less than one as well as a nonzero false positive rate. The expected cost of repair is derived, and the inspection rate is optimized for a cycle (which lasts from degradation‐free to repaired state). This gives results for three cases: the first is for a finite observation period with no degradation recurrence, the second for infinite time horizon allowing recurrence. In the third case, we derive an upper bound for the expected cost in a given constant time period. Finally, the model is applied to determine the optimal strategy for breast cancer screening with regard to the effects of different parametrizations.

SYMPTOMS; TIME perspective; BREAST cancer; EARLY detection of cancer; TIME measurements; FALSE positive error

Quality & Reliability Engineering International, 2020, Vol 36, Issue 8, p2660

0748-8017

Academic Journal

10.1002/qre.2707