We found a match
Your institution may have rights to this item. Sign in to continue.
- Title
Exploring the uncertainty associated with satellite-based estimates of premature mortality due to exposure to fine particulate matter.
- Authors
Ford, B.; Heald, C. L.
- Abstract
The negative impacts of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure on human health are a primary motivator for air quality research. However, estimates of the air pollution health burden vary considerably and strongly depend on the datasets and methodology. Satellite observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) have been widely used to overcome limited coverage from surface monitoring and to assess the global population exposure to PM2.5 and the associated premature mortality. Here we quantify the uncertainty in determining the burden of disease using this approach, discuss different methods and datasets, and explain sources of discrepancies among values in the literature. For this purpose we primarily use the MODIS satellite observations in concert with the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. We contrast results in the United States and China for the years 2004-2011. We estimate that in the United States, exposure to PM2.5 accounts for approximately 4 % of total deaths compared to 22 % in China (using satellite-based exposure), which falls within the range of previous estimates. The difference in estimated mortality burden based solely on a global model vs. that derived from satellite is approximately 9 % for the US and 4 % for China on a nationwide basis, although regionally the differences can be much greater. This difference is overshadowed by the uncertainty in the methodology for deriving PM2.5 burden from satellite observations, which we quantify to be on order of 20 % due to uncertainties in the AOD-to-surface-PM2.5 relationship, 10 % due to the satellite observational uncertainty, and 30 % or greater uncertainty associated with the application of concentration response functions to estimated exposure.
- Subjects
EARLY death; PARTICULATE matter; AIR pollution; HEALTH; ATMOSPHERIC aerosols; ENVIRONMENTAL health; AIR quality
- Publication
Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics, 2015, Vol 15, Issue 19, p25329
- ISSN
1680-7316
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.5194/acpd-15-25329-2015