We found a match
Your institution may have rights to this item. Sign in to continue.
- Title
BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and short-term eruption forecasting.
- Authors
Warner Marzocchi; Laura Sandri; Jacopo Selva
- Abstract
Abstract The main purpose of this paper is to introduce a Bayesian event tree model for eruption forecasting (BET_EF). The model represents a flexible tool to provide probabilities of any specific event which we are interested in, by merging all the relevant available information such as theoretical models, a priori beliefs, monitoring measures, and any kind of past data. BET_EF is based on a Bayesian procedure and it relies on the fuzzy approach to manage monitoring data. The method deals with short- and long-term forecasting; therefore, it can be useful in many practical aspects such as land use planning and volcanic emergencies. Finally, we provide the description of a free software package that provides a graphically supported computation of short- to long-term eruption forecasting, and a tutorial application for the recent MESIMEX exercise at Vesuvius.
- Subjects
VOLCANIC activity prediction; VOLCANIC eruptions; GEOPHYSICS; BAYESIAN analysis
- Publication
Bulletin of Volcanology, 2008, Vol 70, Issue 5, p623
- ISSN
0258-8900
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1007/s00445-007-0157-y