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- Title
Estimating the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus based on the 2013 WHO criteria: a prediction model based on clinical and biochemical variables in early pregnancy.
- Authors
Benhalima, Katrien; Van Crombrugge, Paul; Moyson, Carolien; Verhaeghe, Johan; Vandeginste, Sofie; Verlaenen, Hilde; Vercammen, Chris; Maes, Toon; Dufraimont, Els; De Block, Christophe; Jacquemyn, Yves; Mekahli, Farah; De Clippel, Katrien; Van Den Bruel, Annick; Loccufier, Anne; Laenen, Annouschka; Minschart, Caro; Devlieger, Roland; Mathieu, Chantal
- Abstract
Aims: We aimed to develop a prediction model based on clinical and biochemical variables for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) based on the 2013 World Health Organization (WHO) criteria. Methods: A total of 1843 women from a Belgian multi-centric prospective cohort study underwent universal screening for GDM. Using multivariable logistic regression analysis, a model to predict GDM was developed based on variables from early pregnancy. The performance of the model was assessed by receiver-operating characteristic (AUC) analysis. To account for over-optimism, an eightfold cross-validation was performed. The accuracy was compared with two validated models (van Leeuwen and Teede). Results: A history with a first degree relative with diabetes, a history of smoking before pregnancy, a history of GDM, Asian origin, age, height and BMI were independent predictors for GDM with an AUC of 0.72 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.69–0.76)]; after cross-validation, the AUC was 0.68 (95% CI 0.64–0.72). Adding biochemical variables, a history of a first degree relative with diabetes, a history of GDM, non-Caucasian origin, age, height, weight, fasting plasma glucose, triglycerides and HbA1c were independent predictors for GDM, with an AUC of the model of 0.76 (95% CI 0.72–0.79); after cross-validation, the AUC was 0.72 (95% CI 0.66–0.78), compared to an AUC of 0.67 (95% CI 0.63–0.71) using the van Leeuwen model and an AUC of 0.66 (95% CI 0.62–0.70) using the Teede model. Conclusions: A model based on easy to use variables in early pregnancy has a moderate accuracy to predict GDM based on the 2013 WHO criteria.
- Subjects
WORLD Health Organization; GESTATIONAL diabetes; GLEASON grading system; PREDICTION models; PREGNANCY; LOGISTIC regression analysis; FAMILY history (Medicine)
- Publication
Acta Diabetologica, 2020, Vol 57, Issue 6, p661
- ISSN
0940-5429
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1007/s00592-019-01469-5