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- Title
Smoking Prevalence in 2010: Why the Healthy People Goal Is Unattainable.
- Authors
Mendez, David; Warner, Kenneth E.
- Abstract
Objectives. This study examined the changes in smoking initiation and cessation needed to realize the Healthy People 2010 national adult smoking prevalence objective (13%). Methods. Using data from the National Health Interview Surveys, we calculated smoking prevalence over time with a dynamic population demographics model, examining the effects of changes in smoking initiation and cessation. Results. The draft objective is unattainable solely through decreases in smoking initiation. It could be achieved through smoking cessation alone only if cessation rates immediately increased by a factor of more than 3.5. Assuming plausible decreases in initiation and increases in cessation, the draft objective is virtually unattainable. Conclusions. The health objectives should challenge the status quo but be achievable Formal analysis often can assist in establishing reasonable objectives. (Am J Public Health. 2000;90:401-403)
- Subjects
SMOKING cessation; GOAL (Psychology); SMOKING; ADULTS; HEALTH surveys
- Publication
American Journal of Public Health, 2000, Vol 90, Issue 3, p401
- ISSN
0090-0036
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.2105/AJPH.90.3.401