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- Title
Predicting the genetic consequences of future climate change: The power of coupling spatial demography, the coalescent, and historical landscape changes.
- Authors
Brown, Jason L.; Weber, Jennifer J.; Alvarado‐Serrano, Diego F.; Hickerson, Michael J.; Franks, Steven J.; Carnaval, Ana C.
- Abstract
PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Climate change is a widely accepted threat to biodiversity. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used toforecast whether and how species distributions may track these changes. Yet, SDMs generally fail to account for genetic and demographic processes, limiting population-level inferences. We still do not understand how predicted environmental shifts will impact the spatial distribution of genetic diversity within taxa. METHODS: We propose a novel method that predicts spatially explicit genetic and demographic landscapes of populations under future climatic conditions. We use carefully parameterized SDMs as estimates of the spatial distribution of suitable habitats and landscape dispersal permeability under present-day, past, and future conditions. We use empirical genetic data and approximate Bayesian computation to estimate unknown demographic parameters. Finally, we employ these parameters to simulate realistic and complex models of responses tofuture environmental shifts. We contrast parameterized models under current and future landscapes to quantify the expected magnitude of change. KEY RESULTS: We implement this framework on neutral genetic data available from Penstemon deustus. Our results predict that future climate change will result in geographically widespread declines in genetic diversity in this species. The extent of reduction will heavily depend on the continuity of population networks and deme sizes. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide spatially explicit predictions of within-species genetic diversity using climatic, demographic, and genetic data. Our approach accounts for climatic, geographic, and biological complexity. This framework is promising for understanding evolutionary consequences of climate change, and guiding conservation planning.
- Subjects
CLIMATE change; CONSERVATION biology; PENSTEMONS; PLANTAGINACEAE; PHYTOGEOGRAPHY
- Publication
American Journal of Botany, 2016, Vol 103, Issue 1, p153
- ISSN
0002-9122
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.3732/ajb.1500117