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- Title
A New Risk Prediction Model for Detecting Endoscopic Activity of Ulcerative Colitis.
- Authors
Guoyu Guan; Sangdan Zhuoga; Songbai Zheng; Kangqiao Xu; Tingwen Weng; Wensi Qian; Danian Ji; Xiaofeng Yu
- Abstract
Background/Aims: Ulcerative colitis (UC) is an incurable, relapsing-remitting inflammatory disease that increases steadily. Mucosal healing has become the primary therapeutic objective for UC. Nevertheless, endoscopic assessments are invasive, expensive, time-consuming, and inconvenient. Therefore, it is crucial to develop a noninvasive predictive model to monitor endoscopic activity in patients with UC. Methods: Clinical data of 198 adult patients with UC were collected from January 2016 to August 2022 at Huadong Hospital, China. Results: Patients with UC were randomly divided into the training cohort (70%, n=138) and the validation cohort (30%, n=60). The receiver operating characteristic curve value for the training group was 0.858 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.781 to 0.936), whereas it was 0.845 (95% CI, 0.731 to 0.960) for the validation group. The calibration curve employed the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p>0.05) to demonstrate the consistency between the predicted and the actual probabilities in the nomogram of these two groups. The decision curve analysis validated that the nomogram had clinical usefulness. Conclusions: The nomogram, which incorporated activated partial thromboplastin time, fecal occult blood test, β2-globulin level, and fibrinogen degradation products, served as a prospective tool for evaluating UC activity in clinical practices.
- Subjects
FECAL occult blood tests; PARTIAL thromboplastin time; RECEIVER operating characteristic curves; ULCERATIVE colitis; DECISION making
- Publication
Gut & Liver, 2024, Vol 18, Issue 5, p834
- ISSN
1976-2283
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.5009/gnl230370