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The effect of stochastically perturbed parametrisation tendencies (SPPT) on rapidly ascending air streams.
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- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2022, v. 148, n. 744, p. 1242, doi. 10.1002/qj.4257
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More accuracy with less precision.
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- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2021, v. 147, n. 741, p. 4358, doi. 10.1002/qj.4181
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Forecast verification: Relating deterministic and probabilistic metrics.
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- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2021, v. 147, n. 739, p. 3124, doi. 10.1002/qj.4120
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Revision of the Stochastically Perturbed Parametrisationsmodel uncertainty scheme in the IntegratedForecasting System.
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- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2021, v. 174, n. 735, p. 1364, doi. 10.1002/qj.3978
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- Article
Revision of the Stochastically Perturbed Parametrisations model uncertainty scheme in the Integrated Forecasting System.
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- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2021, v. 174, n. 735, p. 1364, doi. 10.1002/qj.3978
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- Article
Understanding changes of the continuous ranked probability score using a homogeneous Gaussian approximation.
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- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2021, v. 147, n. 734, p. 425, doi. 10.1002/qj.3926
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On the probabilistic skill of dual‐resolution ensemble forecasts.
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- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2020, v. 146, n. 727, p. 707, doi. 10.1002/qj.3704
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Statistical postprocessing of dual‐resolution ensemble precipitation forecasts across Europe.
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- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2019, v. 145, n. 724, p. 3218, doi. 10.1002/qj.3615
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Treatment of model uncertainty from radiation by the Stochastically Perturbed Parametrization Tendencies (SPPT) scheme and associated revisions in the ECMWF ensembles.
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- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2019, v. 145, p. 75, doi. 10.1002/qj.3570
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Ensemble size: How suboptimal is less than infinity?
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- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2019, v. 145, p. 107, doi. 10.1002/qj.3387
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The ensemble‐adjusted Ignorance Score for forecasts issued as normal distributions.
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- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2019, v. 145, p. 129, doi. 10.1002/qj.3447
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Statistical post‐processing of dual‐resolution ensemble forecasts.
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- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2019, v. 145, n. 721, p. 1705, doi. 10.1002/qj.3521
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Stochastic representations of model uncertainties at ECMWF: state of the art and future vision.
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- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2017, v. 143, n. 707, p. 2315, doi. 10.1002/qj.3094
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Towards process-level representation of model uncertainties: stochastically perturbed parametrizations in the ECMWF ensemble.
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- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2017, v. 143, n. 702, p. 408, doi. 10.1002/qj.2931
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Observation-based evaluation of ensemble reliability.
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- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2016, v. 142, n. 694, p. 506, doi. 10.1002/qj.2675
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The forecast skill horizon.
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- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2015, v. 141, n. 693, p. 3366, doi. 10.1002/qj.2619
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On the impact of re-centring initial conditions for ensemble forecasts.
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- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2015, v. 141, n. 692, p. 2571, doi. 10.1002/qj.2543
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Stratospheric temperature anomalies and mountain waves: A three-dimensional simulation using a multi-scale weather prediction model.
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- Geophysical Research Letters, 1996, v. 23, n. 23, p. 3329, doi. 10.1029/96GL03240
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Comparing TIGGE multimodel forecasts with reforecast-calibrated ECMWF ensemble forecasts.
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- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2012, v. 138, n. 668, p. 1814, doi. 10.1002/qj.1895
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Sensitivity experiments for ensemble forecasts of the extratropical transition of typhoon Tokage (2004).
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- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2010, v. 136, n. 646, p. 183, doi. 10.1002/qj.527
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Potential use of an ensemble of analyses in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System.
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- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2008, v. 134, n. 637, p. 2051, doi. 10.1002/qj.346
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TIGGE: Preliminary results on comparing and combining ensembles.
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- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2008, v. 134, n. 637, p. 2029, doi. 10.1002/qj.334
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Advances in simulating atmospheric variability with the ECMWF model: From synoptic to decadal time-scales.
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- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2008, v. 134, n. 634, p. 1337, doi. 10.1002/qj.289
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Scale-dependent verification of ensemble forecasts.
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- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2008, v. 134, n. 633, p. 973, doi. 10.1002/qj.255
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On the representation of initial uncertainties with multiple sets of singular vectors optimized for different criteria.
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- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2007, v. 133, n. 629, p. 2045, doi. 10.1002/qj.174
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Performance of the ECMWF forecasting system in the Arctic during winter.
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- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2007, v. 133, n. 626, p. 1327, doi. 10.1002/qj.99
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- Article
Relevance of mountain wave cooling for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds over Scandinavia: Mesoscale dynamics and observations for January 1997.
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- Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres, 2001, v. 106, n. D2, p. 1569, doi. 10.1029/2000JD900194
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Relevance of mountain waves for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds over Scandinavia: A 20 year climatology.
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- Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres, 2001, v. 106, n. D2, p. 1583, doi. 10.1029/2000JD900250
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A Reduced Radiation Grid for the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System.
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- Monthly Weather Review, 2008, v. 136, n. 12, p. 4760, doi. 10.1175/2008MWR2590.1
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Comparison between Singular Vectors and Breeding Vectors as Initial Perturbations for the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System.
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- Monthly Weather Review, 2008, v. 136, n. 11, p. 4092, doi. 10.1175/2008MWR2498.1
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The Impact of Moist Singular Vectors and Horizontal Resolution on Short-Range Limited-Area Ensemble Forecasts for Two European Winter Storms.
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- Monthly Weather Review, 2006, v. 134, n. 10, p. 2877, doi. 10.1175/MWR3210.1
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On Ensemble Prediction Using Singular Vectors Started from Forecasts.
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- Monthly Weather Review, 2005, v. 133, n. 10, p. 3038, doi. 10.1175/MWR3018.1
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Impact of the Mesoscale Range on Error Growth and the Limits to Atmospheric Predictability.
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- Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 2020, v. 77, n. 11, p. 3769, doi. 10.1175/JAS-D-19-0346.1
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Atmospheric Predictability: Revisiting the Inherent Finite-Time Barrier.
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- Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 2019, v. 76, n. 12, p. 3883, doi. 10.1175/JAS-D-19-0057.1
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Sensitivity, Structure, and Dynamics of Singular Vectors Associated with Hurricane Helene (2006).
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- Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 2012, v. 69, n. 2, p. 675, doi. 10.1175/JAS-D-11-048.1
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A Reduced Rank Estimate of Forecast Error Variance Changes due to Intermittent Modifications of the Observing Network.
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- Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 2003, v. 60, n. 5, p. 729, doi. 10.1175/1520-0469(2003)060<0729:ARREOF>2.0.CO;2
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Surface Pressure Drag for Hydrostatic Two-Layer Flow over Axisymmetric Mountains.
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- Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 2001, v. 58, n. 8, p. 797, doi. 10.1175/1520-0469(2001)058<0797:SPDFHT>2.0.CO;2
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Mesoscale forecasts of stratospheric mountain waves.
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- Meteorological Applications, 1998, v. 5, n. 2, p. 117, doi. 10.1017/S1350482798000802
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Statistical post-processing of dual-resolution ensemble forecasts.
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- Geophysical Research Abstracts, 2019, v. 21, p. 1
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New Methods for Data Storage of Model Output from Ensemble Simulations.
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- Monthly Weather Review, 2019, v. 147, n. 2, p. 677, doi. 10.1175/MWR-D-18-0170.1
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Single Precision in Weather Forecasting Models: An Evaluation with the IFS.
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- Monthly Weather Review, 2017, v. 145, n. 2, p. 495, doi. 10.1175/MWR-D-16-0228.1
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- Article
The Propagation of Mountain Waves into the Stratosphere: Quantitative Evaluation of Three-Dimensional Simulations.
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- Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 2000, v. 57, n. 18, p. 3090, doi. 10.1175/1520-0469(2000)057<3090:TPOMWI>2.0.CO;2
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- Article