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- Title
Modeling New Party Performance: A Conceptual and Methodological Approach for Volatile Party Systems.
- Abstract
This study of new political parties in the Third Wave democracies of Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador, and Venezuela conceptualizes the early life of a party as a developmental phase. The analysis uses latent trajectory modeling to identify five qualitatively distinctive performance profiles, which the author calls âexplosive,â âcontender,â âflash,â âflat,â and âflopâ trajectories. This finding challenges the conventional approaches used in the study of new party performance, where scholars classify parties using subjective criteria, often into the successful/failed dichotomy. In unstable party systems, where we expect greater diversity in the performance profiles of new parties, latent trajectory modeling is preferred because it yields a result more consistent with extant theorizing on new parties. In stable systems, as in the case of Chile, the approaches can yield similar results. Nevertheless, the case of Venezuela (1958â88) demonstrates that even in stable party systems, the modeling approach used here can identify important variation that alternatives might miss.
- Subjects
CHILE; VENEZUELA; QUANTITATIVE research; POLITICAL parties; POLITICAL science research; NEW democracies
- Publication
Political Analysis, 2009, Vol 17, Issue 3, p311
- ISSN
1047-1987
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1093/pan/mpp007