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- Title
Quantifying Land and People Exposed to Sea‐Level Rise with No Mitigation and 1.5°C and 2.0°C Rise in Global Temperatures to Year 2300.
- Authors
Brown, S.; Nicholls, R. J.; Goodwin, P.; Haigh, I. D.; Lincke, D.; Vafeidis, A. T.; Hinkel, J.
- Abstract
Abstract: We use multiple synthetic mitigation sea‐level scenarios, together with a non‐mitigation sea‐level scenario from the Warming Acidification and Sea‐level Projector model. We find sea‐level rise (SLR) continues to accelerate post‐2100 for all but the most aggressive mitigation scenarios indicative of 1.5°C and 2.0°C. Using the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment modeling framework, we project land and population exposed in the 1 in 100 year coastal flood plain under SLR and population change. In 2000, the flood plain is estimated at 540 × 103 km2. By 2100, under the mitigation scenarios, it ranges between 610 × 103 and 640 × 103 km2 (580 × 103 and 700 × 103 km2 for the 5th and 95th percentiles). Thus differences between the mitigation scenarios are small in 2100. However, in 2300, flood plains are projected to increase to between 700 × 103 and 960 × 103 km2 in 2300 (610 × 103 and 1290 × 103 km2) for the mitigation scenarios, but 1630 × 103 km2 (1190 × 103 and 2220 × 103 km2) for the non‐mitigation scenario. The proportion of global population exposed to SLR in 2300 is projected to be between 1.5% and 5.4% (1.2%–7.6%) (assuming no population growth after 2100) for the aggressive mitigation and the non‐mitigation scenario, respectively. Hence over centennial timescales there are significant benefits to climate change mitigation and temperature stabilization. However, sea‐levels will continue to rise albeit at lower rates. Thus potential impacts will keep increasing necessitating adaptation to existing coastal infrastructure and the careful planning of new coastal developments.
- Subjects
SEA level; GLOBAL temperature changes; CLIMATE change
- Publication
Earth's Future, 2018, Vol 6, Issue 3, p583
- ISSN
2328-4277
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1002/2017EF000738