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- Title
Projecting the spread of COVID-19 for Germany.
- Authors
Donsimoni, Jean Roch; Glawion, René; Plachter, Bodo; Wälde, Klaus
- Abstract
We model the evolution of the number of individuals reported sick with COVID-19 in Germany. Our theoretical framework builds on a continuous time Markov chain with four states: healthy without infection, sick, healthy after recovery or despite infection but without symptoms, and deceased. Our quantitative solution matches the number of sick individuals up to the most recent observation and ends with a share of sick individuals following from infection rates and sickness probabilities. We employ this framework to study inter alia the expected peak of the number of sick individuals in Germany in a scenario without public regulation of social contacts. We also study the effects of public regulations. For all scenarios we report the expected end date of the CoV-2 epidemic.
- Subjects
GERMANY; COVID-19; MARKOV processes; SOCIAL contact
- Publication
German Economic Review, 2020, Vol 32, Issue 3, p181
- ISSN
1465-6485
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1515/ger-2020-0031