We found a match
Your institution may have rights to this item. Sign in to continue.
- Title
Estimating incidence of type 1 and type 2 diabetes using prevalence data: the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study.
- Authors
Hoyer, Annika; Brinks, Ralph; Tönnies, Thaddäus; Saydah, Sharon H.; D'Agostino Jr., Ralph B.; Divers, Jasmin; Isom, Scott; Dabelea, Dana; Lawrence, Jean M.; Mayer-Davis, Elizabeth J.; Pihoker, Catherine; Dolan, Lawrence; Imperatore, Giuseppina
- Abstract
Background: Incidence is one of the most important epidemiologic indices in surveillance. However, determining incidence is complex and requires time-consuming cohort studies or registries with date of diagnosis. Estimating incidence from prevalence using mathematical relationships may facilitate surveillance efforts. The aim of this study was to examine whether a partial differential equation (PDE) can be used to estimate diabetes incidence from prevalence in youth. Methods: We used age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific estimates of prevalence in 2001 and 2009 as reported in the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study. Using these data, a PDE was applied to estimate the average incidence rates of type 1 and type 2 diabetes for the period between 2001 and 2009. Estimates were compared to annual incidence rates observed in SEARCH. Precision of the estimates was evaluated using 95% bootstrap confidence intervals. Results: Despite the long period between prevalence measures, the estimated average incidence rates mirror the average of the observed annual incidence rates. Absolute values of the age-standardized sex- and type-specific mean relative errors are below 8%. Conclusions: Incidence of diabetes can be accurately estimated from prevalence. Since only cross-sectional prevalence data is required, employing this methodology in future studies may result in considerable cost savings.
- Subjects
TYPE 1 diabetes; TYPE 2 diabetes; DIABETES; PARTIAL differential equations; ABSOLUTE value
- Publication
BMC Medical Research Methodology, 2023, Vol 23, Issue 1, p1
- ISSN
1471-2288
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1186/s12874-023-01862-3