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- Title
Modeling the potential impact of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax on ischemic heart disease and stroke in Brazil.
- Authors
Rinaldi, Ana Elisa M; Nucci, Luciana Bertoldi; Enes, Carla Cristina
- Abstract
Background A high intake of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) is associated with the risk of several chronic diseases, including ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke. This study aimed to model the impact of a 20% tax on all SSBs for IHD and stroke among Brazilian adults. Methods This was an ex-ante risk comparative study. The model applied a 20% tax on SSBs and projected the incidence, prevalence and mortality of IHD and stroke over a 20-year period (2019–39). Using data on consumption, previously published cross- and own-price elasticities of SSBs, and relative risk, we estimated changes in IHD and stroke burden. Results Our model predicts that a 20% SSB tax may reduce new cases of IHD by ~13%, especially among women, and avert ~8% of the deaths attributable to IHD over 20 years. These results represent a decrease of 19 543 new cases and 8466 and 7274 fewer deaths in the period for men and women, respectively. Estimates of reduction in incidence, prevalence and deaths from stroke were not significant over 20 years. Conclusions Even under conservative assumptions, our study found that a small reduction in SSB consumption led to a substantial decrease in IHD incidence and mortality in Brazil.
- Subjects
BRAZIL; STROKE prevention; RISK assessment; MYOCARDIAL ischemia; RESEARCH funding; HEALTH policy; DESCRIPTIVE statistics; TAXATION; SURVEYS; STROKE; COMPARATIVE studies; BEVERAGES; SENSITIVITY &; specificity (Statistics); DISEASE risk factors; ADULTS
- Publication
Journal of Public Health, 2024, Vol 46, Issue 3, p357
- ISSN
1741-3842
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1093/pubmed/fdae074