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- Title
Global warming may freeze the invasion of big-headed ants.
- Authors
Bertelsmeier, Cleo; Luque, Gloria; Courchamp, Franck
- Abstract
Climate change and invasive species are two of the most serious threats of biodiversity. A general concern is that these threats interact, and that a globally warming climate could favour invasive species. In this study we investigate the invasive potential of one of the '100 of the world's worst invasive species', the big-headed ant Pheidole megacephala. Using ecological niche models, we estimated the species' potential suitable habitat in 2020, 2050 and 2080. With an ensemble forecast obtained from five different modelling techniques, 3 Global Circulation Models and 2 CO emission scenarios, we generated world maps with suitable climatic conditions and assessed changes, both qualitatively and quantitatively. Almost one-fifth (18.5 %) of the landmass currently presents suitable climatic conditions for P. megacephala. Surprisingly, our results also indicate that the invasion of big-headed ants is not only unlikely to benefit from climate change, but may even suffer from it. Our projections show a global decrease in the invasive potential of big-headed ants as early as 2020 and becoming even stronger by 2080 reaching a global loss of 19.4 % of area with favourable climate. The decrease is observable in all 6 broad regions, being greatest in the Oceania and lowest in Europe.
- Subjects
GLOBAL warming; BIODIVERSITY; INTRODUCED species; PHEIDOLE; ECOLOGICAL niche; ECOLOGICAL models
- Publication
Biological Invasions, 2013, Vol 15, Issue 7, p1561
- ISSN
1387-3547
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1007/s10530-012-0390-y