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- Title
The prognostic value of the 12‐, 6‐, 3‐ and 1‐month 'Surprise Question' in cancer patients: A prospective cohort study in three hospitals.
- Authors
Stoppelenburg, Arianne; Arslan, Müzeyyen; Owusuaa, Catherine; Gunnink, Nicolette; van der Linden, Yvette M.; Luelmo, Saskia A. C.; Meerum‐Terwogt, Jetske; van der Padt‐Pruijsten, Annemieke; Nieboer, Daan; van der Heide, Agnes
- Abstract
Objective: This prospective study aimed to evaluate the performance of the 'Surprise Question' (SQ) 'Would I be surprised if this patient died in the next 12 months?' in predicting survival of 12, 6, 3 and 1 month(s), respectively, in hospitalised patients with cancer. Methods: In three hospitals, physicians were asked to answer SQs for 12/6/3/1 month(s) for inpatients with cancer. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were calculated. Results: A total of 783 patients were included, of whom 51% died in the 12‐month period after inclusion. Sensitivity of the SQ predicting death within 12 months was 0.79, specificity was 0.66, the positive predictive value was 0.71 and the negative predictive value was 0.75. When the SQ concerned a shorter survival period, sensitivities and positive predictive values decreased, whereas specificities and negative predictive values increased. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, the SQ was significantly associated with mortality (OR 3.93, 95% CI 2.70–5.71, p < 0.01). Conclusions: The 12‐month SQ predicts death in patients with cancer admitted to the hospital reasonably well. Shortening the timeframe decreases sensitivities and increases specificities. The four surprise questions may help to identify patients for whom palliative care is indicated.
- Subjects
CONFIDENCE intervals; MULTIPLE regression analysis; MULTIVARIATE analysis; LOG-rank test; AGE distribution; CANCER chemotherapy; CANCER patients; T-test (Statistics); QUALITY of life; CHI-squared test; KAPLAN-Meier estimator; TUMORS; SENSITIVITY &; specificity (Statistics); ODDS ratio; PREDICTIVE validity; LONGITUDINAL method; PALLIATIVE treatment
- Publication
European Journal of Cancer Care, 2022, Vol 31, Issue 6, p1
- ISSN
0961-5423
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1111/ecc.13551