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- Title
STOCHASTIC ARIMA MODEL FOR PENNISETUM GLAUCUM PRODUCTION IN INDIA.
- Authors
Sankar, T. Jai; Pushpa, P.
- Abstract
Pennisetum glaucum (Millets) are major energy source and staple foods for people living in the dry and arid regions of the world. This study deals with stochastic autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for P. glaucum production in India based on P. glaucum production data during the years from 1961 to 2019. A decision is made on the appropriate ARIMA model for P. glaucum production in India based on Autoregressive (AR), Moving Average (MA) and ARIMA processes. The results examine ARIMA (0,1,2) and its components Autocorrelation Function (ACF), Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Normalized BIC and Box-Ljung Q statistics. P. glaucum production in India is predicted to increase from 10.24 million tons in 2019 to 11.75 million tons in 2025 according to the chosen model.
- Subjects
INDIA; BOX-Jenkins forecasting; PEARL millet; STANDARD deviations; MOVING average process; STOCHASTIC models; ARID regions
- Publication
International Journal of Agricultural & Statistical Sciences, 2023, Vol 19, Issue 1, p373
- ISSN
0973-1903
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.59467/IJASS.2023.19.373