We found a match
Your institution may have rights to this item. Sign in to continue.
- Title
Machine learning based early warning system enables accurate mortality risk prediction for COVID-19.
- Authors
Gao, Yue; Cai, Guang-Yao; Fang, Wei; Li, Hua-Yi; Wang, Si-Yuan; Chen, Lingxi; Yu, Yang; Liu, Dan; Xu, Sen; Cui, Peng-Fei; Zeng, Shao-Qing; Feng, Xin-Xia; Yu, Rui-Di; Wang, Ya; Yuan, Yuan; Jiao, Xiao-Fei; Chi, Jian-Hua; Liu, Jia-Hao; Li, Ru-Yuan; Zheng, Xu
- Abstract
Soaring cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) are pummeling the global health system. Overwhelmed health facilities have endeavored to mitigate the pandemic, but mortality of COVID-19 continues to increase. Here, we present a mortality risk prediction model for COVID-19 (MRPMC) that uses patients' clinical data on admission to stratify patients by mortality risk, which enables prediction of physiological deterioration and death up to 20 days in advance. This ensemble model is built using four machine learning methods including Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, Gradient Boosted Decision Tree, and Neural Network. We validate MRPMC in an internal validation cohort and two external validation cohorts, where it achieves an AUC of 0.9621 (95% CI: 0.9464–0.9778), 0.9760 (0.9613–0.9906), and 0.9246 (0.8763–0.9729), respectively. This model enables expeditious and accurate mortality risk stratification of patients with COVID-19, and potentially facilitates more responsive health systems that are conducive to high risk COVID-19 patients. Methods to stratify patients according to mortality risk are essential to allocate limited heath resources during the COVID-19 crisis. Here, using machine learning methods, the authors present a mortality risk prediction model for COVID-19 that uses patients' clinical data on admission to stratify patients by mortality risk.
- Subjects
COVID-19; COVID-19 pandemic; MACHINE learning; FORECASTING; DEATH forecasting; HEALTH facilities; PANDEMICS
- Publication
Nature Communications, 2020, Vol 11, Issue 1, pN.PAG
- ISSN
2041-1723
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1038/s41467-020-18684-2