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- Title
Human Health Impact and Economic Effect for PM<sub>2.5</sub> Exposure under Carbon Neutrality.
- Authors
Li, Xinyang; Liu, Juan; Liu, Zhenyu; Liu, Jinxing; Li, Penghui
- Abstract
PM2.5 is the main air pollutant in China, the future health burden and economic impact it poses in China has not been fully studied. In this study, a mathematical model of PM2.5 emissions and concentrations was constructed using a fitting method, and the changes of PM2.5 concentrations from 2035 to 2060 were predicted including Ambitious-pollution-1.5°C-goals, Ambitious-pollution-2°C-goals, Current-goals and Baseline scenarios, the health impacts of PM2.5 mortality were predicted in this period. The resulting economic losses including value of statistical life(VSL) attributed to the burdens of disease were predicted. The results show that: (1) Compared with 2035, the change range of PM2.5 concentration in 2060 is -83.37 ~ 21.33μg.m−3 under different carbon neutrality scenarios, and the pollution reduction degree of Ambitious-pollution -1.5°C-goals and Ambitious-pollution-2°C-goals is usually higher than that of Current-goals and Baseline scenarios; (2) Overall health impacts increased by Ambitious-pollution-1.5°C-goals, Ambitious-pollution-2°C-goals, Current-goals, and Baseline. In 2060, compared with the 1.5°C scenario, the changes in health impacts in each province under the 2°C and Current scenarios were 15.88%-21.50% and 17.29%-97.55%, respectively. (3) In 2060, the economic loss of each province in the Ambitious-pollution-1.5 °C-goals will account for 0.02% ~ 0.05% of the total national GDP, and the proportion under the baseline scenario will be 0.21% ~ 57.89%. The study shows that significant health and economic benefits can be achieved under the 1.5 °C scenario in the future, however, given future population and GDP changes, China needs to take more aggressive air pollution mitigation measures.
- Subjects
CARBON offsetting; AIR pollutants; PARTICULATE matter; ECONOMIC impact; VALUE (Economics); AIR pollution
- Publication
Water, Air & Soil Pollution, 2024, Vol 235, Issue 9, p1
- ISSN
0049-6979
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1007/s11270-024-07362-4