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- Title
A Forecast Model Applied to Monitor Crops Dynamics Using Vegetation Indices (NDVI).
- Authors
Carreño-Conde, Francisco; Sipols, Ana Elizabeth; de Blas, Clara Simón; Mostaza-Colado, David; Parra, Lorena
- Abstract
Vegetation dynamics is very sensitive to environmental changes, particularly in arid zones where climate change is more prominent. Therefore, it is very important to investigate the response of this dynamics to those changes and understand its evolution according to different climatic factors. Remote sensing techniques provide an effective system to monitor vegetation dynamics on multiple scales using vegetation indices (VI), calculated from remote sensing reflectance measurements in the visible and infrared regions of the electromagnetic spectrum. In this study, we use the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), provided from the MOD13Q1 V006 at 250 m spatial resolution product derived from the MODIS sensor. NDVI is frequent in studies related to vegetation mapping, crop state indicator, biomass estimator, drought monitoring and evapotranspiration. In this paper, we use a combination of forecasts to perform time series models and predict NDVI time series derived from optical remote sensing data. The proposed ensemble is constructed using forecasting models based on time series analysis, such as Double Exponential Smoothing and autoregressive integrated moving average with explanatory variables for a better prediction performance. The method is validated using different maize plots and one olive plot. The results after combining different models show the positive influence of several weather measures, namely, temperature, precipitation, humidity and radiation.
- Subjects
VEGETATION dynamics; OPTICAL remote sensing; TIME series analysis; MOVING average process; NORMALIZED difference vegetation index
- Publication
Applied Sciences (2076-3417), 2021, Vol 11, Issue 4, p1859
- ISSN
2076-3417
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.3390/app11041859