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- Title
Modeling the impact of climate change on sediment yield from an Eastern Himalayan River Basin using ArcSWAT.
- Authors
Chiphang, Ngahorza; Golom, Tarak; Bandyopadhyay, Arnab; Bhadra, Aditi
- Abstract
The aim of this study is to simulate and quantify the sediment yield from an Eastern Himalayan river basin using the SWAT model and to provide baseline information and future changes of the sediment yield in response to climate change. Calibration (2006–2009) and validation (2010–2012) of the model showed a reliable and satisfactory estimate of daily streamflow. The critical areas were identified and prioritized at Hydrological Response Unit (HRU) level. To simulate future sediment yield, the downscaled bias-corrected spatially disaggregated NASA NEX-GDDP dataset under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios was used. The analysis periods were grouped into 27-year blocks with a baseline of 1979 (1979–2005) and three future time slices, i.e. near-future or the 2030s (2019–2045), mid-future or the 2060s (2046–2072), and far-future or the 2080s (2073–2099). Results indicated a good correlation (R2 = 0.84) between water yield and sediment yield. Analysis of the spatial distribution of sediment yield showed that a large portion of the study area (73.34%) came under slight sediment yield class, while a small portion (6.4%) was under very severe sediment yield class. The temporal variation of sediment yield under various yield classes as well as the average annual sediment yield showed an increasing trend over time. The average total sediment yield for the period (2006–2012) was estimated at 17.92 t ha−1 year−1, which crossed the permissible sediment yield loss limit of 12 t ha−1 year−1 by water. Prioritization on HRU scale revealed that a total of 48 HRUs which aggregated to 53.83 km2 came under priority class I, while 357 HRUs came under priority class VI representing 74.34% of the watershed area. An increase in the area under slight (2.21%), moderate (1.27%), and severe (0.09%) sediment yield classes and a decrease in area under high (− 5.07%), very high (− 0.28%), and very severe (1.78%) sediment yield classes was projected under RCP 4.5 scenario. In the case of RCP 8.5 scenario, a decrease in the area under slight (− 17.25%), moderate (− 5.83%), and high (− 3.02%) sediment yield classes and an increase in area under very high (6.0%), severe (11.12%), and very severe (8.98%) sediment yield classes was projected by the end of the twenty-first century. Thus, the sediment yield is projected to increase as a result of climate change, implying the need for basin-wide sediment management measures in the study area to mitigate the detrimental effects of this change.
- Publication
Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 2022, Vol 15, Issue 3, p1
- ISSN
1866-7511
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1007/s12517-022-09562-w