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- Title
Using insurance data to quantify the multidimensional impacts of warming temperatures on yield risk.
- Authors
Perry, Edward D.; Yu, Jisang; Tack, Jesse
- Abstract
Previous research predicts significant negative yield impacts from warming temperatures, but estimating the effects on yield risk and disentangling the relative causes of these losses remains challenging. Here we present new evidence on these issues by leveraging a unique publicly available dataset consisting of roughly 30,000 county-by-year observations on insurance-based measures of yield risk from 1989–2014 for U.S. corn and soybeans. Our results suggest that yield risk will increase in response to warmer temperatures, with a 1 °C increase associated with yield risk increases of approximately 32% and 11% for corn and soybeans, respectively. Using cause of loss information, we also find that additional losses under warming temperatures primarily result from additional reported occurrences of drought, with reported losses due to heat stress playing a smaller role. An implication of our findings is that the cost of purchasing crop insurance will increase for producers as a result of warming temperatures. The impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity remain debated. Here, the authors present new evidence for the magnitude and causes of U.S. crop insurance losses, using a database of production risk from 1989–2014 across 1733 counties for corn and 1632 counties for soybeans, and find that crop production risk will increase in response to warmer temperatures.
- Subjects
AGRICULTURAL productivity; CROP insurance; CROP losses; INSURANCE; TEMPERATURE; SOYBEAN
- Publication
Nature Communications, 2020, Vol 11, Issue 1, pN.PAG
- ISSN
2041-1723
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1038/s41467-020-17707-2