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- Title
NCAR's Experimental Real-Time Convection-Allowing Ensemble Prediction System.
- Authors
Schwartz, Craig S.; Romine, Glen S.; Sobash, Ryan A.; Fossell, Kathryn R.; Weisman, Morris L.
- Abstract
This expository paper documents an experimental, real-time, 10-member, 3-km, convection-allowing ensemble prediction system (EPS) developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in spring 2015. The EPS is particularly unique in that continuously cycling, limited-area, mesoscale ensemble Kalman filter analyses provide diverse initial conditions. In addition to describing the EPS configurations, initial forecast assessments are presented that suggest the EPS can provide valuable severe weather guidance and skillful predictions of precipitation. The EPS output is available to operational forecasters, many of whom have incorporated the products into their toolboxes. Given such rapid embrace of an experimental system by the operational community, acceleration of convection-allowing EPS development is encouraged.
- Subjects
REAL-time computing; WEATHER forecasting; CONVECTION (Meteorology); ATMOSPHERIC research; KALMAN filtering
- Publication
Weather & Forecasting, 2015, Vol 30, Issue 6, p1645
- ISSN
0882-8156
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1175/WAF-D-15-0103.1