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- Title
Sensitivity analysis of a 2D flood inundation model. A case study of Tous Dam.
- Authors
Ullah, Aftab; Haider, Sajjad; Farooq, Rashid
- Abstract
Floods are one of the most common natural hazard having far reaching environmental implications such as soil and bank erosion, pollution of ground and surface water and landslides etc. Flood inundation modeling is frequently simulated through the numerical solution of 2D shallow water equations. These equations are a potent tool that can be used to obtain satisfactory solutions in complex riverine geometry. The usage of Sensitivity Analysis (SA) is becoming more prevalent in environmental modeling for various purposes such as uncertainty assessment, model calibration, and robust decision-making. This research is a case study of the Tous Dam break in Spain and the resultant urban flooding which was assessed for SA using the method of Morris. In all, five parameters were assessed, namely, river Manning, large roughness, time step, turbulent coefficient, and downstream boundary condition for their influence on the model output. The output, comprising depth, flood extent, bed shear stress, and time of initial inundation among others was assessed spatially as well as temporally. The temporal disaggregation revealed that the dominant factors changed position as the flood regime changed from rising to peak and then to recession. The peak flow stage had the large roughness as the most influential parameter and river Manning in the first 2 h of the rising phase while downstream boundary condition predominated during both the rising and receding phases. Curiously, temporal disaggregation revealed that the model time step, which was a marginally important parameter throughout, was able to assume the No. 1 ranking during the phase of decreasing flow i.e. the onset of the recession phase, when the model time step has to adjust from high flow velocity to slower velocities.
- Subjects
SPAIN; SHALLOW-water equations; FLOOD warning systems; SENSITIVITY analysis; FLOODS; LANDSLIDES; FLOW velocity; SHEARING force
- Publication
Environmental Earth Sciences, 2024, Vol 83, Issue 7, p1
- ISSN
1866-6280
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1007/s12665-024-11500-w