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- Title
Risk Assessment for Coalbed Methane Development using a Structural Equation Model.
- Authors
Yongchang ZHANG; Yongguo YANG; Jinhui LUO; Yuhua CHEN
- Abstract
A successful risk assessment of coalbed methane development project can help managers monitor the risk in a timely manner, which can reduce the loss of business. The goal of this study is to determine the risk factors and to establish an assessment framework for the risk assessment of coalbed methane projects in order to meet the needs of managers for risk monitoring and control. In this paper, including policies and regulations, social environment, geological resources, core technology, organization and management, economic operation and safety guarantee of seven broad categories risk factors have been identified through literature survey and interaction with industry experts. Through the structural equation modeling approach, data attained from a questionnaire survey was analyzed and a model was developed to examine the relationships between different assessment factors and the risk consequences of coalbed methane projects. And it verifies the feasibility and applicability of the proposed model through an example. The results showed that economic operation is a key risk factor forming the hub of the system, while geological resources indeterminacy has maximum influence, followed by technical factors. The results were also of importance for decision-making to understand the relative importance of the assessment factors and establish a comprehensive framework to assess the risk of coalbed methane projects.
- Subjects
COALBED methane; RISK assessment; STRUCTURAL equation modeling
- Publication
International Journal of Simulation: Systems, Science & Technology, 2016, Vol 17, Issue 43, p15.1
- ISSN
1473-8031
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.5013/IJSSST.a.17.43.15