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- Title
Predicted Long-Term Cardiovascular Risk Among Young Adults in the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health.
- Authors
Clark, Cari Jo; Alonso, Alvaro; Spencer, Rachael A.; Pencina, Michael; Williams, Ken; Everson-Rose, Susan A.
- Abstract
Objectives. We estimated the distribution of predicted long-term cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among young adults in the United States. Methods. Our data were derived from National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health participants (n = 14 333; average age: 28.9 years). We used a Framingham-derived risk prediction function to calculate 30-year risks of “hard” and “general” CVD by gender and race/ethnicity. Results. Average 30-year risks for hard and general CVD were 10.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 10.1%, 10.7%) and 17.3% (95% CI = 17.0%, 17.7%) among men and 4.4% (95% CI = 4.3%, 4.6%) and 9.2% (95% CI = 8.9%, 9.5%) among women. Average age-adjusted risks of hard and general CVD were higher among Blacks and American Indians than among Whites and lower among Asian/Pacific Islander women than White women. American Indian men continued to have a higher risk of general CVD after adjustment for socioeconomic status. Four percent of women (95% CI = 3.6%, 5.0%) and 26.2% of men (95% CI = 24.7%, 27.8%) had a 20% or higher risk of general CVD. Racial differences were detected but were not significant after adjustment for socioeconomic status. Conclusions. Average CVD risk among young adults is high. Population-based prevention strategies and improved detection and treatment of high-risk individuals are needed to reduce the future burden of CVD.
- Subjects
UNITED States; CARDIOVASCULAR disease diagnosis; AGE distribution; ASIANS; BLACK people; CARDIOVASCULAR diseases risk factors; CONFIDENCE intervals; ETHNIC groups; NATIVE Americans; PANEL analysis; RACE; REGRESSION analysis; RESEARCH funding; SEX distribution; STATISTICS; WHITE people; LOGISTIC regression analysis; SECONDARY analysis; PREDICTIVE validity; PREDICTIVE tests; DESCRIPTIVE statistics; ODDS ratio
- Publication
American Journal of Public Health, 2014, Vol 104, Issue 12, pe108
- ISSN
0090-0036
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.2105/AJPH.2014.302148