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- Title
Impacts of Tropical Cyclones on the Caribbean Under Future Climate Conditions.
- Authors
Kleptsova, Olga S.; Dijkstra, Henk A.; van Westen, René M.; van der Boog, Carine G.; Katsman, Caroline A.; James, Rebecca K.; Bouma, Tjeerd J.; Klees, Roland; Riva, Riccardo E. M.; Slobbe, D. Cornelis; Zijlema, Marcel; Pietrzak, Julie D.
- Abstract
Joint effects of the dynamic sea‐level rise projected changes in the large‐scale atmosphere/ocean circulation, and wave climate on hurricane‐induced extreme water levels in the Caribbean region are assessed. We use the 2D‐depth integrated ADCIRC + SWAN wave‐ocean model, baroclinically coupled to an ocean‐eddying version of the Community Earth System Model, to compare impacts of the September 2017 hurricanes with projected impacts of similar hypothetical tropical storms occurring in the future. The model predicts only minor changes in the hurricane‐induced extreme water levels for those Caribbean islands which were severely devastated by the 2017 tropical storms (Irma and Maria). That is, provided that the hurricane intensity remains at the present‐day level, the global mean sea‐level rise is the main future coastal flood risk factor. Plain Language Summary: The unique geophysical setting makes the Caribbean region extremely vulnerable to climatic changes experienced over the past few decades. The majority of the population and important infrastructures such as ports and airports are concentrated in the coastal zones which are at risk of permanent flooding as sea level continues to rise. The economy of the small Caribbean islands is heavily dependent on tourism and associated industries which are under pressure due to coral bleaching and coastal erosion. Additionally, the Caribbean region experiences intense and frequent extreme weather events which can potentially become more destructive in the future. As it is uncertain whether the hurricanes themselves will change, we investigate how the present‐day tropical cyclones will impact the Caribbean in the future. Our results indicate that islands in the Northeast Caribbean will not be at higher risk of hurricane‐induced flooding in the future if coastal infrastructure and ecosystems (coral reefs and seagrass meadows) can withstand the sea‐level rise and continue to provide important coastal protection services. In contrast, the projected increase in wave height in the southern Caribbean can lead to more coastal flooding and beach erosion in these areas. Key Points: Only minor changes in the hurricane‐induced extreme water levels in the Northeast Caribbean are expected under future climate conditionsGlobal sea‐level rise remains the main coastal flood risk factor provided that hurricane intensity is unchangedSouthern Caribbean can become more vulnerable to coastal erosion and flooding by increased wave setup
- Subjects
SEA level; OCEAN circulation; HURRICANES; TROPICAL storms; CLIMATE change
- Publication
Journal of Geophysical Research. Oceans, 2021, Vol 126, Issue 9, p1
- ISSN
2169-9275
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1029/2020JC016869