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- Title
EPIDEMIC PREDICTIONS AND PREDICTABILITY IN COMPLEX ENVIRONMENTS.
- Authors
COLIZZA, VITTORIA; BARRAT, ALAIN; BARTHÉLEMY, MARC; VESPIGNANI, ALESSANDRO
- Abstract
The spread of epidemics is inevitably entangled with human behavior, social contacts, and population flows among different geographical regions. The collection and analysis of datasets which trace the activities and interactions of individuals, social patterns, transportation infrastructures and travel fluxes, have unveiled the presence of connectivity patterns characterized by complex features encoded in large-scale heterogeneities and unbounded statistical fluctuations. These features dramatically affect the behavior of dynamical processes occurring on networks, and are responsible for the observed statistical properties of the processes' dynamics and evolution patterns. Here we will present a large-scale stochastic computational approach for the study of the global spread of emergent infectious diseases which explicitly incorporates real world transportation networks and census data.
- Subjects
INFECTIOUS disease transmission; EPIDEMICS; BIOCOMPLEXITY; DISEASE prevalence; STOCHASTIC processes; EPIDEMIOLOGY
- Publication
Biophysical Reviews & Letters, 2008, Vol 3, Issue 1/2, p217
- ISSN
1793-0480
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1142/S1793048008000708