We found a match
Your institution may have rights to this item. Sign in to continue.
- Title
Current and potential future distributions of Hass avocados in the face of climate change across the Americas.
- Authors
Ramírez-Gil, Joaquín Guillermo; Cobos, Marlon E.; Jiménez-García, Daniel; Morales-Osorio, Juan Gonzalo; Peterson, A. Townsend
- Abstract
Climate change is a global phenomenon that presents diverse threats to global food security. Of the avocados (Persea americana Mill), Hass is the most commonly cultivated variety in the world, representing an important source of nutrition in numerous countries, yet its potential risks in the face of climate change are unknown. Here, we characterise current and future potential distributional areas for Hass avocado under different scenarios of climate change across the Americas. We use ecological-niche modelling approaches to explore implications of changes in climate, considering 22 general circulation models, two emissions scenarios, and six model parameterisations. The current potential distribution of Hass avocado extends across tropical America (excluding most of Amazonia), including some areas at higher latitudes. Future projections show stability in potential distribution. Range expansions are expected mainly in temperate areas, and range contractions are related to temperature and precipitation increases, mostly in Amazonia. Model parametrisations contributed the most to overall variation in future projections, followed by climate models, and then emissions scenarios. Our conclusion of relative stability for the crop's potential distribution is still subject to effects on other components of avocado production systems, and may be vulnerable to extreme phenomena. Avocado is an important tropical crop plant, known to be particularly responsive to environment in terms of survival and production, yet likely effects of global climate change on its potential geography remain unknown. This study used correlative ecological niche models to explore the future geographic potential, which has implications for future development of its production.
- Subjects
AVOCADO; POTENTIAL distribution; CLIMATE change; TROPICAL crops; GENERAL circulation model; CROPS
- Publication
Crop & Pasture Science, 2019, Vol 70, Issue 8, p694
- ISSN
1836-0947
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1071/CP19094