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- Title
The association between ambient temperature and mortality of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China: a time-series analysis.
- Authors
Zhu, Gaopei; Zhu, Yuhang; Wang, Zhongli; Meng, Weijing; Wang, Xiaoxuan; Feng, Jianing; Li, Juan; Xiao, Yufei; Shi, Fuyan; Wang, Suzhen
- Abstract
<bold>Background: </bold>The COVID-19 has caused a sizeable global outbreak and has been declared as a public health emergency of international concern. Sufficient evidence shows that temperature has an essential link with respiratory infectious diseases. The objectives of this study were to describe the exposure-response relationship between ambient temperature, including extreme temperatures, and mortality of COVID-19.<bold>Methods: </bold>The Poisson distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was constructed to evaluate the non-linear delayed effects of ambient temperature on death, by using the daily new death of COVID-19 and ambient temperature data from January 10 to March 31, 2020, in Wuhan, China.<bold>Results: </bold>During the period mentioned above, the average daily number of COVID-19 deaths was approximately 45.2. Poisson distributed lag non-linear model showed that there was a non-linear relationship (U-shape) between the effect of ambient temperature and mortality. With confounding factors controlled, the daily cumulative relative death risk decreased by 12.3% (95% CI [3.4, 20.4%]) for every 1.0 °C increase in temperature. Moreover, the delayed effects of the low temperature are acute and short-term, with the most considerable risk occurring in 5-7 days of exposure. The delayed effects of the high temperature appeared quickly, then decrease rapidly, and increased sharply 15 days of exposure, mainly manifested as acute and long-term effects. Sensitivity analysis results demonstrated that the results were robust.<bold>Conclusions: </bold>The relationship between ambient temperature and COVID-19 mortality was non-linear. There was a negative correlation between the cumulative relative risk of death and temperature. Additionally, exposure to high and low temperatures had divergent impacts on mortality.
- Publication
BMC Public Health, 2021, Vol 21, Issue 1, p117
- ISSN
1471-2458
- Publication type
journal article
- DOI
10.1186/s12889-020-10131-7