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- Title
A Comparison of XGBoost, Random Forest, and Nomograph for the Prediction of Disease Severity in Patients With COVID-19 Pneumonia: Implications of Cytokine and Immune Cell Profile.
- Authors
Hong, Wandong; Zhou, Xiaoying; Jin, Shengchun; Lu, Yajing; Pan, Jingyi; Lin, Qingyi; Yang, Shaopeng; Xu, Tingting; Basharat, Zarrin; Zippi, Maddalena; Fiorino, Sirio; Tsukanov, Vladislav; Stock, Simon; Grottesi, Alfonso; Chen, Qin; Pan, Jingye
- Abstract
Background and Aims: The aim of this study was to apply machine learning models and a nomogram to differentiate critically ill from non-critically ill COVID-19 pneumonia patients. Methods: Clinical symptoms and signs, laboratory parameters, cytokine profile, and immune cellular data of 63 COVID-19 pneumonia patients were retrospectively reviewed. Outcomes were followed up until Mar 12, 2020. A logistic regression function (LR model), Random Forest, and XGBoost models were developed. The performance of these models was measured by area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analysis. Results: Univariate analysis revealed that there was a difference between critically and non-critically ill patients with respect to levels of interleukin-6, interleukin-10, T cells, CD4+ T, and CD8+ T cells. Interleukin-10 with an AUC of 0.86 was most useful predictor of critically ill patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. Ten variables (respiratory rate, neutrophil counts, aspartate transaminase, albumin, serum procalcitonin, D-dimer and B-type natriuretic peptide, CD4+ T cells, interleukin-6 and interleukin-10) were used as candidate predictors for LR model, Random Forest (RF) and XGBoost model application. The coefficients from LR model were utilized to build a nomogram. RF and XGBoost methods suggested that Interleukin-10 and interleukin-6 were the most important variables for severity of illness prediction. The mean AUC for LR, RF, and XGBoost model were 0.91, 0.89, and 0.93 respectively (in two-fold cross-validation). Individualized prediction by XGBoost model was explained by local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME) plot. Conclusions: XGBoost exhibited the highest discriminatory performance for prediction of critically ill patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. It is inferred that the nomogram and visualized interpretation with LIME plot could be useful in the clinical setting. Additionally, interleukin-10 could serve as a useful predictor of critically ill patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.
- Subjects
COVID-19; CALCITONIN; RANDOM forest algorithms; RECEIVER operating characteristic curves; T cells; CYTOKINES
- Publication
Frontiers in Cellular & Infection Microbiology, 2022, Vol 12, p1
- ISSN
2235-2988
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.3389/fcimb.2022.819267